Regular Season - 31 · 2 October 2026, 23:45 UTC

Juventude vs Operario-PR Serie B prediction & result

Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias Sul
Referee: Julio Cesar Pfleger
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Juventude 3-0 Operario-PR.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Juventude, 25% draw, 24% Operario-PR — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Juventude 2.24, Operario-PR 1.15.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High.

Published

Model insights: Juventude vs Operario-PR

62%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 10%1-1 9%2-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Juventude at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Juventude99%Draw1%Operario-PR0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silva
9'
⚽Gabriel Pires
22'
Mandaca
25'
27'
Mikael Doka
⚽Fabio limaassist: Aderlan
41'
45'
🔁Aylonout: Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodrigues
45'
🔁Mikael Dokaout: Maguinho
⚽Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silvaassist: Mandaca
56'
🔁Mandacaout: Marcos Paulo
60'
🔁Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silvaout: Gabriel Barbosa Pinheiro
60'
68'
🔁Hildeberto Pereiraout: Pedrinho
69'
🔁Vinícius Diniz Dall Antoniaout: Paraiba
69'
🔁Caio Dantasout: Vinicius Alessandro Mingotti
70'
Gabriel Feliciano da Silva
🔁Gabriel Piresout: Luan Martins·Goncalves
70'
🔁Fabio limaout: Alan Kardec
71'
🔁Patryckout: Wadson Victor Nunes Damasceno
82'

Match stats — Juventude vs Operario-PR

49%Possession51%
25Shots22
6On target4
3Corners5

Line-ups

Juventude 3-5-2
  • 93JandreiG
  • 34Rodrigo SamD
  • 4MessiasD
  • 47Marcos PauloD
  • 13AderlanM
  • 75RaíM
  • 29Gabriel PiresM
  • 44MandacaM
  • 30PatryckM
  • 11Fábio LimaF
  • 25Alisson SafiraF
Substitutes
  • 97Gabriel PinheiroD
  • 18L. AmarillaF
  • 17M. CastroF
  • 3TitiD
  • 10Marcos PauloF
  • 5Luan GonçalvesD
  • 6WadsonD
  • 70Juan ChristianF
  • 12Pedro RochaG
Coach: Maurício Barbieri
Operario-PR 4-2-3-1
  • 33VagnerG
  • 2Mikael DokaD
  • 22J. CuenúD
  • 43JosephD
  • 27Gabriel FelicianoD
  • 39Matheus TrindadeM
  • 20Vinícius DinizM
  • 14Hildeberto PereiraM
  • 10BoschiliaM
  • 11AylonM
  • 99Caio DantasF
Substitutes
  • 16MirandaD
  • 6MoraesD
  • 32CharlesM
  • 26MaguinhoD
  • 8J. ZuluagaM
  • 30Pedro VilhenaM
  • 5ÍndioM
  • 21BrennoM
  • 9Vinícius MingottiF
Coach: Luizinho Lopes

Form going into Juventude vs Operario-PR

Juventude

  • W1-0away to America Mineiro28 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Sport Recife19 September 2026
  • L0-2Athletic Club MG13 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Criciuma9 September 2026

Operario-PR

  • D2-2Ceara26 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Criciuma22 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Nautico Recife15 September 2026
  • W3-0CRB9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Juventude scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Juventude had two goals or fewer.
  • Operario-PR went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Operario-PR scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Operario-PR had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Juventude3116873519+1656
8Operario-PR3113994341+248

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Juventude vs Operario-PR

  • 2 October 2026Juventude 3–0 Operario-PRSerie B
  • 5 June 2026Operario-PR 2–1 JuventudeSerie B
  • 22 December 2020Operario-PR 3–0 JuventudeSerie B
  • 29 September 2020Juventude 1–0 Operario-PRSerie B

Leading scorers: Juventude and Operario-PR

Juventude

  • Alisson Safira6 goals1 assist

Operario-PR

  • Boschilia13 goals4 assists
  • Vinícius Diniz6 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.24 goals for Juventude and 1.15 for Operario-PR; the game produced 3 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Gabriel Pires 22' (Juventude), Fabio lima 41' (Juventude), Marcos Paulo Lima Batista Silva 56' (Juventude).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Juventude the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Juventude against 1.15 for Operario-PR. Juventude's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.84 for Operario-PR.