Londrina
vs
Criciuma
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Londrina 0-2 Criciuma.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Londrina, 29% draw, 34% Criciuma — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Londrina 1.39, Criciuma 1.32.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Model insights: Londrina vs Criciuma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Londrina at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Londrina vs Criciuma
Line-ups
- 1LuanG
- 75Kauê LeonardoD
- 15Gabriel LacerdaD
- 4WallaceD
- 33KevynD
- 5TárikM
- 17João ConiM
- 32João VitorM
- 96ThalisM
- 28HerbertM
- 99Igor BahiaF
- 23William PottkerF
- 27Guilherme CachoeiraF
- 30Mauricio KozlinskiG
- 11Pablo DyegoF
- 7Victor HugoF
- 3Victor Feitosa de FreitasM
- 55ChumbinhoM
- 18JuninhoM
- 44Caio RodriguesD
- 32AirtonG
- 6MarcinhoD
- 3RodrigoD
- 4Luciano CastánD
- 22Marcelo HermesD
- 14RonaldM
- 41Jean IrmerM
- 7Fellipe MateusM
- 10Jhonata RobertF
- 9NicolasF
- 91R. OteroF
- 34Bruno AlvesD
- 33YuriF
- 13WaguininhoF
- 50ThiaguinhoM
- 11RomarinhoF
- 21João CarlosF
- 70PedroG
- 31Hiago Accinelli da RozaM
- 8Guilherme LoboM
Form going into Londrina vs Criciuma
Londrina
- L0-2away to Vila Nova25 September 2026
- L1-2Fortaleza EC20 September 2026
- W6-0Ponte Preta15 September 2026
- W2-1away to São Bernardo10 September 2026
Criciuma
- W3-0Avai27 September 2026
- L0-2Operario-PR22 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Goianiense13 September 2026
- L0-2Juventude9 September 2026
What these results say
- Londrina scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Londrina conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Londrina had three goals or more.
- Criciuma failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Criciuma failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Criciuma conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Londrina | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 28 |
| 4 | Criciuma | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Londrina vs Criciuma
- 2 October 2026Londrina 0–2 CriciumaSerie B
- 6 June 2026Criciuma 1–0 LondrinaSerie B
- 12 August 2023Criciuma 2–0 LondrinaSerie B
- 1 May 2023Londrina 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 30 July 2022Londrina 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 14 April 2022Criciuma 1–0 LondrinaSerie B
Leading scorers: Londrina and Criciuma
Londrina
- Bruno Santos11 goals3 assists
Criciuma
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.39 goals for Londrina and 1.32 for Criciuma; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Yuri Jonathan 49' (Criciuma), Yuri Jonathan 52' (Criciuma).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Londrina the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Londrina against 1.32 for Criciuma. Londrina's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.36 for Criciuma.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.