Jaguares
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Jaguares 1–0 Alianza Valledupar
The model makes it 45% Jaguares, 29% draw, 26% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jaguares 1.64, Alianza Valledupar 0.98.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jaguares at 45% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
- D3-3away to Junior6 September 2026
- D2-2America de Cali29 August 2026
- W1-0Chico21 August 2026
Alianza Valledupar
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
- W1-0Junior13 September 2026
- L0-3away to America de Cali3 September 2026
- L1-5Atletico Nacional30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Jaguares | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Alianza Valledupar | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar
- 19 March 2026Alianza Valledupar 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 10 November 2024Jaguares 0–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 21 April 2024Alianza Valledupar 2–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 22 September 2023Jaguares 0–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 15 April 2023Alianza Valledupar 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 30 July 2022Jaguares 2–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Leading scorers: Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
- A. Rentería9 goals3 assists
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jaguares carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.23 for Alianza Valledupar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Jaguares and 0.98 for Alianza Valledupar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jaguares rate 0.63 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alianza Valledupar rate 0.52 and 1.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Alianza Valledupar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jaguares the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Jaguares against 0.98 for Alianza Valledupar. Jaguares's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.8 for Alianza Valledupar.