28 July 2026, 22:00 UTC

Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Florencio Sola, Buenos Aires
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Banfield 3-2 Sarmiento Junin.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Banfield, 19% draw, 62% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 5.26, 5.26 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sarmiento Junin at 62% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Lautaro Gomezout: Bruno Sepúlveda
46'
46'
🔁Gabriel Díazout: Jhon Renteria
⚽Tiziano Perrottaassist: David Zalazar
53'
55'
🔁Pablo Magninout: Mauricio Martínez
55'
🔁Elián Giménezout: Jonathan Herrera
⚽Tiziano Perrottaassist: Tomas Adoryan
59'
61'
🔁Thiago Santamaríaout: Gastón González
🔁David Zalazarout: Ignacio Pais
71'
74'
🔁Santiago Salleout: Gastón Arturia
78'
Juan Manuel Insaurralde
⚽Bruno Sepúlveda (pen)
82'
🔁Tomas Adoryanout: Favio Álvarez
83'
🔁Lautaro Villegasout: Santiago Esquivel
83'
84'
⚽Jonathan Herrera
🔁Tiziano Perrottaout: Jeremias Acosta
85'
86'
⚽Junior Marabel
88'
•Junior Marabel

Match stats — Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin

39%Possession61%
16Shots13
8On target5
3Corners4
1.8xG2.24

Goals against chances

Banfield3 from 1.80 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sarmiento Junin2 from 2.24 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Banfield
  • 1Facundo SanguinettiG
  • 13Brandon OviedoD
  • 2Danilo ArboledaD
  • 6Nicolás MerianoD
  • 24Santiago López GarciaM
  • 40David ZalazarM
  • 21Lautaro VillegasM
  • 10Lautaro GomezM
  • 27Ignacio AbrahamM
  • 20Tomas AdoryanF
  • 17Tiziano PerrottaF
Substitutes
  • 9Bruno SepúlvedaF
  • 35Ignacio PaisM
  • 11Favio ÁlvarezM
  • 5Santiago EsquivelM
  • 16Jeremias AcostaF
  • 25Gino SantilliG
  • 4Juan Luis AlfaroD
  • 34Santiago DanieleD
  • 33Neyder MorenoM
Coach: Pedro Troglio
Sarmiento Junin
  • 1Iván ArboledaG
  • 29Thiago SantamaríaD
  • 44Renzo OrihuelaD
  • 2Juan Manuel InsaurraldeD
  • 3Lucas SuárezD
  • 8Santiago SalleM
  • 15Cristian ZabalaM
  • 23Elián GiménezM
  • 33Gabriel DíazM
  • 27Junior MarabelF
  • 7Pablo MagninF
Substitutes
  • 10Jhon RenteriaM
  • 16Mauricio MartínezM
  • 24Jonathan HerreraF
  • 11Gastón GonzálezF
  • 6Gastón ArturiaD
  • 12Thyago AyalaG
  • 4Juan Manuel CabreraD
  • 26Yair ArismendiM
  • 21Julián MavillaM
Coach: Facundo Sava

Form going into Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin

Banfield

  • L0-1away to Huracan25 July 2026

Sarmiento Junin

  • L2-3Argentinos Juniors23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin

  • 28 July 2026Banfield 3–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 30 January 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 December 2024Banfield 1–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 29 July 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 23 October 2022Banfield 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 17 February 2022Sarmiento Junin 2–2 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Banfield and Sarmiento Junin

Banfield

  • M. Méndez6 goals3 assists
  • Tiziano Perrota6 goals1 assists

Sarmiento Junin

  • J. Marabel12 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.