Banfield
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Final score: Banfield 3-2 Sarmiento Junin.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Banfield, 21% draw, 34% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.22, 4.76 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Banfield 2.15, Sarmiento Junin 1.85.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Match stats: Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin
Banfield had 39% possession, 16 shots (8 on target), 3 corners, 1.8 expected goals; Sarmiento Junin had 61% possession, 13 shots (5 on target), 4 corners, 2.24 expected goals.
Goals: Tiziano Perrotta 53' for Banfield, Tiziano Perrotta 59' for Banfield, Bruno Sepúlveda (penalty) 82' for Banfield, Jonathan Herrera 84' for Sarmiento Junin, Junior Marabel 86' for Sarmiento Junin.
Head-to-head: Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin
- 30 January 2026Sarmiento Junin 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 December 2024Banfield 1–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 July 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 October 2022Banfield 0–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 February 2022Sarmiento Junin 2–2 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 November 2021Sarmiento Junin 0–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Banfield the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Banfield against 1.85 for Sarmiento Junin. Banfield's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.75 for Sarmiento Junin.