San Lorenzo
vs
Deportivo Riestra
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: San Lorenzo 0–0 Deportivo Riestra
The model makes it 35% San Lorenzo, 38% draw, 27% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.86, 2.63 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (27%).
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 0.75, Deportivo Riestra 0.56.
Both teams to score: 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 15%, under 2.5: 85%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 38% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
San Lorenzo
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
Deportivo Riestra
- D0-0away to Gimnasia Mendoza19 September 2026
- L0-3Lanus14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Huracan23 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- San Lorenzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
- 17 July 2026San Lorenzo 1–1 Deportivo RiestraCopa Argentina
- 25 March 2026Deportivo Riestra 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 October 2025San Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 April 2025Deportivo Riestra 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 May 2024Deportivo Riestra 1–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.57 for Deportivo Riestra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.56 for Deportivo Riestra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Lorenzo rate 0.56 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Riestra rate 0.59 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for San Lorenzo against 0.56 for Deportivo Riestra. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.09 for Deportivo Riestra.