San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 1-0 Deportivo Riestra.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% San Lorenzo, 40% draw, 27% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 3.03, 2.50 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
the draw at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 35A. CordobaD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 62G. AlassiaM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 3T. RodríguezM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 9A. CuelloF
- 42F. LorenzónD
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 36Daniel HerreraD
- 34Maximo Atrio
- 39Elián Uriel OjedaM
- 13Juan RattalinoM
- 27M. RíoM
- 44Enzo Alan SalasF
- 6M. de RitisD
- 1I. ArceG
- 36M. BracamonteD
- 5P. RamírezD
- 22C. PazD
- 19J. RandazzoD
- 15N. SansotreD
- 8M. CélizM
- 14P. MonjeM
- 10B. SánchezM
- 11A. DíazF
- 7Antony Daniel Alonso EspinozaF
- 17Á. AlmadaM
- 23M. ArzamendiaG
- 9N. BenegasF
- 13R. GalloD
- 6I. GariglioD
- 27J. GoitíaD
- 21T. GonzálezF
- 29M. GranerosF
- 20T. LauroM
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
Deportivo Riestra
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Central Cordoba de Santiago5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gimnasia Mendoza19 September 2026
- L0-3Lanus14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
What these results say
- San Lorenzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- Deportivo Riestra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 19 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra
- 17 July 2026San Lorenzo 1–1 Deportivo RiestraCopa Argentina
- 25 March 2026Deportivo Riestra 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 October 2025San Lorenzo 1–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 April 2025Deportivo Riestra 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 May 2024Deportivo Riestra 1–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Deportivo Riestra
San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- R. Auzmendi72
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Lorenzo beat Deportivo Riestra 1–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 40% and given a win for San Lorenzo 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Teo Rodríguez Pagano 67' for San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.42.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Lorenzo a 43.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.0% after a win, 47.2% after a draw, 64.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.0%, 22.1 points lower than before the match.
For Deportivo Riestra the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.2% going in: 9.2% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.9%, 16.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on San Lorenzo v Deportivo Riestra has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 35% / 38% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 40% / 27%: the biggest move is San Lorenzo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- San Lorenzo win33%▼ −2
- Draw40%▲ +2
- Deportivo Riestra win27%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.