Rosario Central
vs
Independiente Rivadavia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente Rivadavia
The model makes it 42% Rosario Central, 30% draw, 28% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.44, Independiente Rivadavia 0.99.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Rosario Central
- W1-0Argentinos Juniors20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre13 September 2026
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
- W1-0away to Barracas Central21 September 2026
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
What these results say
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 23 March 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 November 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 February 2024Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 April 2013Independiente Rivadavia 1–3 Rosario CentralPrimera Nacional
- 8 October 2012Rosario Central 2–2 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 10 April 2012Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Independiente Rivadavia
Rosario Central
- Á. Di María8 goals4 assists
Independiente Rivadavia
- A. Arce9 goals1 assists
- F. Sartori8 goals
- J. Florentín6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rosario Central carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.72 for Independiente Rivadavia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Rosario Central and 0.99 for Independiente Rivadavia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rosario Central rate 0.86 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente Rivadavia rate 1.02 and 1.36.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rosario Central against 0.99 for Independiente Rivadavia. Rosario Central's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.36 for Independiente Rivadavia.