Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Rosario Central 5-0 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Rosario Central, 29% draw, 27% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rosario Central at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23J. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46Ignacio OvandoD
- 13G. ÁvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 31F. NavarroM
- 11Á. Di MaríaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 33A. SotoD
- 9M. RubenF
- 15F. MalloD
- 6J. KomarD
- 24Juan Valentín GiménezD
- 18J. FernándezF
- 10F. CerviM
- 16T. BadaloniF
- 30Nicolás BolcatoG
- 14L. GómezD
- 2L. CostaD
- 42S. StuderD
- 3J. ElordiD
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. FlorentínM
- 11G. RíosM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 10M. FernándezM
- 9A. ArceF
- 7V. RamisF
- 13A. OsellaD
- 80M. RealiF
- 43F. SartoriF
- 28A. VigoD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 19R. AtencioF
- 8L. BuccaM
- 27D. CregoM
Form going into Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Rosario Central
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Banfield6 October 2026
- W1-0Argentinos Juniors20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre13 September 2026
- D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central21 September 2026
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
What these results say
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rosario Central had two goals or fewer.
- Independiente Rivadavia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Independiente Rivadavia.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 34 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 23 March 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 November 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 February 2024Rosario Central 1–0 Independiente RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 April 2013Independiente Rivadavia 1–3 Rosario CentralPrimera Nacional
- 8 October 2012Rosario Central 2–2 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
The full Rosario Central vs Independiente Rivadavia record →
Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Independiente Rivadavia
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María115
- G. Ávila73
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- J. Florentín91
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rosario Central beat Independiente Rivadavia 5–0. The model had made a win for Rosario Central its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ángel Di María (penalty) 11' for Rosario Central, Jaminton Campaz 51' for Rosario Central, Ángel Di María 57' for Rosario Central, Enzo Copetti 69' for Rosario Central, Marco Ruben 74' for Rosario Central. Sent off: Alex Arce (Independiente Rivadavia) 40'. On expected goals it finished 3.38–0.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rosario Central a 67.5% chance to finish in the top four: 83.6% after a win, 62.6% after a draw, 44.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.6%, 16.1 points higher than before the match.
For Independiente Rivadavia the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 64.4% after a win, 38.2% after a draw, 23.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 23.3%.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rosario Central v Independiente Rivadavia has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Rosario Central's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Rosario Central win44%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Independiente Rivadavia win27%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.