San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 0-2 Boca Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% San Lorenzo, 30% draw, 32% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Lorenzo at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 32E. HerreraD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 16G. CorujoD
- 19E. AmorD
- 6M. De RitisD
- 9A. CuelloM
- 24N. TripichioM
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 38F. FariasM
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 30N. AriasD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 3T. Rodriguez PaganoD
- 15M. CardilloM
- 13J. RattalinoM
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 10F. GulliM
- 18D. HerazoF
- 1A. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacibarM
- 5L. ParedesM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 20A. VelascoF
- 12L. BreyG
- 4J. FigalD
- 26M. PellegrinoD
- 24D. GorositoD
- 8T. BelmonteM
- 27M. BraidaM
- 7Carlos PalaciosF
- 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
- 11Angel RomeroF
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
- W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026
- D1-1away to Platense16 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 18 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
- 11 March 2026Boca Juniors 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 August 2024Boca Juniors 3–2 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2024Boca Juniors 2–1 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 November 2023San Lorenzo 1–1 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 April 2023San Lorenzo 1–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boca Juniors won 2–0 at San Lorenzo. The model had leaned towards a win for San Lorenzo at 38% and given a win for Boca Juniors 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: L. Lozano 57' for Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel 72' for Boca Juniors. Sent off: Manuel Insaurralde (San Lorenzo) 31'. On expected goals it finished 0.21–2.15.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.