Platense
vs
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Platense 2–1 Newell's Old Boys
The model makes it 44% Platense, 28% draw, 28% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Platense 1.81, Newell's Old Boys 1.22.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Platense vs Newell's Old Boys
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Platense wins, grey are draws, red are Newell's Old Boys wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Platense at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Platense vs Newell's Old Boys
Platense
- L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Defensa Y Justicia31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Barracas Central23 August 2026
- D1-1Boca Juniors16 August 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
- W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Deportivo Riestra15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Platense | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Platense vs Newell's Old Boys
- 11 March 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 May 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 March 2024Newell's Old Boys 0–0 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 31 October 2023Platense 0–0 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 29 January 2023Platense 2–2 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 July 2022Platense 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Platense carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.6 for Newell's Old Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Platense and 1.22 for Newell's Old Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Platense rate 0.87 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newell's Old Boys rate 0.77 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Newell's Old Boys, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Platense a 0% chance of the title and Newell's Old Boys 0.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Platense the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Platense against 1.22 for Newell's Old Boys. Platense's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.28 for Newell's Old Boys.