20 September 2026, 20:00 UTC

Platense vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Buenos Aires
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Platense 0-1 Newell's Old Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Platense, 27% draw, 28% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Platense at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Platense0%Draw4%Newell's Old Boys96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽S. Solari
33'
Rodrigo Herrera
Ignacio Vazquez
44'
🔁P. Ferreiraout: M. Amarfil
57'
Víctor Cuesta
66'
66'
🔁L. Carrizoout: B. Cabrera
Guido Mainero
67'
🔁B. Merliniout: F. Zapiola
68'
🔁G. Maineroout: J. Gauto
68'
76'
🔁F. Guchout: J. Gomez
76'
🔁S. Solariout: W. Nunez
🔁M. Barriosout: I. Gomez
80'
🔁K. Retamarout: G. Lencina
80'
Celías Ingenthron
82'
Maximiliano Amarfil
87'
88'
Jerónimo Gómez Mattar
90+1'
🔁W. Mazzanttiout: O. Salomon
90+1'
🔁M. Coccaroout: F. Scarpeccio

Match stats — Platense vs Newell's Old Boys

57%Possession43%
5Shots9
2On target4
6Corners1
0.24xG0.91

Goals against chances

Platense0 from 0.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
Newell's Old Boys1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Platense 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. CozzaniG
  • 4A. LagosD
  • 13I. VazquezD
  • 31Victor CuestaD
  • 38C. IngenthronD
  • 26P. FerreiraM
  • 24M. BarriosM
  • 7G. MaineroM
  • 18B. MerliniM
  • 43K. RetamarM
  • 79B. SepulvedaF
Substitutes
  • 22N. SumavilG
  • 25J. SaboridoD
  • 3T. SilvaD
  • 34M. MendiaD
  • 5I. GomezM
  • 16G. TogniF
  • 10F. ZapiolaM
  • 15M. AmarfilM
  • 99G. LencinaF
Coach: Martin Palermo
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. ReinattiG
  • 6M. OrtegaD
  • 17L. GiannettiD
  • 16L. CarrizoD
  • 28J. RussoD
  • 26R. HerreraM
  • 5L. RegiardoM
  • 7W. MazzanttiM
  • 20F. GuchM
  • 32S. SolariM
  • 9M. CoccaroF
Substitutes
  • 21G. AriasG
  • 3M. LucianoD
  • 22O. SalomonD
  • 25B. CabreraD
  • 2I. GlavinovichD
  • 15A. SonoraM
  • 27L. GomezM
  • 19J. GomezM
  • 99I. RamirezF
Coach: Lucas Bernardi

Form going into Platense vs Newell's Old Boys

Platense

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Estudiantes La Plata12 September 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Riestra4 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Defensa Y Justicia31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Barracas Central23 August 2026
  • D1-1Boca Juniors16 August 2026

Newell's Old Boys

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
  • W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
  • W2-0Deportivo Riestra15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Platense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Platense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Platense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Newell's Old Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Newell's Old Boys scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Platense143561420-614
6Newell's Old Boys145631310+321

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Platense vs Newell's Old Boys

  • 11 March 2026Newell's Old Boys 1–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 11 May 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 16 March 2024Newell's Old Boys 0–0 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 31 October 2023Platense 0–0 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 29 January 2023Platense 2–2 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Platense vs Newell's Old Boys record →

The result against the call

Newell's Old Boys won 1–0 at Platense. The model had leaned towards a win for Platense at 45% and given a win for Newell's Old Boys 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: S. Solari 18' for Newell's Old Boys. Sent off: Celías Ingenthron (Platense) 82'. On expected goals it finished 0.24–0.91.

How the call on Platense v Newell's Old Boys has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Newell's Old Boys's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Platense win45%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Newell's Old Boys win28%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.