Djurgardens IF
vs
IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Djurgardens IF 1–0 IF Elfsborg
The model makes it 40% Djurgardens IF, 34% draw, 26% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 2.50, 2.94 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Djurgardens IF 1.11, IF Elfsborg 0.69.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Djurgardens IF wins, grey are draws, red are IF Elfsborg wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Djurgardens IF at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg
Djurgardens IF
- W2-0Gais14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Mjallby AIF3 September 2026
- W4-0Mjallby AIF31 August 2026
- W3-0away to Malmo FF24 August 2026
IF Elfsborg
- W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
- L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026
- D1-1away to IFK Goteborg23 August 2026
- W3-0Vasteras SK FK14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 21 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 19 | +27 | 41 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg
- 22 April 2026IF Elfsborg 2–1 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 19 July 2025Djurgardens IF 1–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 19 May 2025IF Elfsborg 4–0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 22 November 2024Djurgardens IF 0–3 IF ElfsborgFriendlies Clubs
- 28 July 2024IF Elfsborg 1–2 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 12 May 2024Djurgardens IF 2–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg
Djurgardens IF
- K. Lien15 goals4 assists
- Bo Åsulv Hegland8 goals14 assists
- P. Åslund6 goals1 assists
IF Elfsborg
- L. Ãstman6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Djurgardens IF carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.53 for IF Elfsborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.69 for IF Elfsborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Djurgardens IF rate 0.62 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IF Elfsborg rate 0.54 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Djurgardens IF a 14% chance of the title and IF Elfsborg 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Djurgardens IF the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Djurgardens IF against 0.69 for IF Elfsborg. Djurgardens IF's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.1 for IF Elfsborg.