20 September 2026, 20:00 UTC

Rosario Central vs Argentinos Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Rosario Central 1-0 Argentinos Juniors.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Rosario Central, 30% draw, 32% Argentinos Juniors — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rosario Central at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rosario Central96%Draw4%Argentinos Juniors0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Ovandoassist: V. Pizarro
41'
🔁A. Rodriguezout: F. Navarro
45+3'
53'
🔁E. Viverosout: A. Alcaraz
69'
Franco Vázquez
71'
🔁F. Paredesout: K. Coronel
71'
🔁N. Orozout: G. Florentin
Franco Ibarra
75'
83'
🔁C. Bravoout: M. Gimenez
83'
🔁H. Lopezout: D. Porcel
🔁J. Campazout: G. Cantizano
86'
Ignacio Ovando
88'
🔁E. Veronout: F. Mallo Blanco
90+3'
🔁A. Di Mariaout: G. Duarte
90+3'

Match stats — Rosario Central vs Argentinos Juniors

40%Possession60%
12Shots11
6On target3
5Corners9
0.78xG0.4

Goals against chances

Rosario Central1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth
Argentinos Juniors0 from 0.40 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. WernerG
  • 42E. VeronD
  • 46I. OvandoD
  • 13G. AvilaD
  • 3A. SandezD
  • 5F. IbarraM
  • 20V. PizarroM
  • 88A. RodriguezM
  • 11A. Di MariaM
  • 8J. CampazM
  • 22E. CopettiF
Substitutes
  • 23C. LedesmaG
  • 24J. GimenezD
  • 33A. SotoD
  • 15F. Mallo BlancoD
  • 2S. ZarachoD
  • 7M. CabreraF
  • 31F. NavarroM
  • 9M. RubenF
  • 10F. CerviM
Coach: Jorge Almiron
Argentinos Juniors 4-4-2
  • 25B. CortesG
  • 17F. ParedesD
  • 16F. AlvarezD
  • 6F. VazquezD
  • 26C. BravoD
  • 29E. ViverosM
  • 15K. GutierrezM
  • 8H. LopezM
  • 11N. OrozM
  • 27T. MolinaF
  • 9G. VeronF
Substitutes
  • 12G. Siri PayerG
  • 4E. GodoyD
  • 30A. NunezD
  • 22K. CoronelD
  • 23M. MendozaD
  • 32G. InfantinoM
  • 18F. MancuelloM
  • 10G. FlorentinM
  • 35A. AlcarazF
Coach: Nicolas Diez

Form going into Rosario Central vs Argentinos Juniors

Rosario Central

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Tigre13 September 2026
  • D1-1Newell's Old Boys6 September 2026
  • L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Barracas Central16 August 2026

Argentinos Juniors

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Gimnasia La Plata13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
  • W2-1Aldosivi30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Lanus25 August 2026
  • L0-2away to River Plate16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Argentinos Juniors failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Argentinos Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Argentinos Juniors had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Rosario Central148422211+1128
2Argentinos Juniors148421811+728

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Argentinos Juniors

  • 11 March 2026Argentinos Juniors 0–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 11 May 2024Argentinos Juniors 3–2 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 March 2024Argentinos Juniors 3–0 Rosario CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 29 October 2023Rosario Central 3–1 Argentinos JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 26 January 2023Rosario Central 1–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Rosario Central vs Argentinos Juniors record →

Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Argentinos Juniors

Rosario Central

GoalsAssists

  • Á. Di María115

Argentinos Juniors

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rosario Central beat Argentinos Juniors 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Rosario Central at 38%. The goal: I. Ovando 41' for Rosario Central. On expected goals it finished 0.78–0.40.

How the call on Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.

  1. Rosario Central win38%▼ −1
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Argentinos Juniors win32%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.