San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% San Jose Earthquakes, 25% draw, 42% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 42% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
San Jose Earthquakes
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
St. Louis City
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
- 26 April 2026St. Louis City 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025St. Louis City 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 15 February 2025St. Louis City 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 4 July 2024St. Louis City 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd13 goals2 assists
St. Louis City
- Rafael Navarro14 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.