San Jose Earthquakes
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 33% San Jose Earthquakes, 25% draw, 42% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.44, St. Louis City 1.66.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
San Jose Earthquakes
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
- W3-1away to Portland Timbers24 May 2026
- L2-3FC Dallas17 May 2026
St. Louis City
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
- W3-0Austin23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 33 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd11 goals2 assists
St. Louis City
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
San Jose Earthquakes carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.62 for St. Louis City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): San Jose Earthquakes L-W-L-D-L; St. Louis City W-W-W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.66 for St. Louis City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.74 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Louis City rate 0.62 and 1.03.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Jose Earthquakes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Jose Earthquakes a 7% chance of the title and St. Louis City 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.66 for St. Louis City. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.03 for St. Louis City.