San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% San Jose Earthquakes, 25% draw, 42% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. GunnG
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 5D. MunieD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 2J. RickettsD
- 14R. VieiraM
- 34B. LerouxM
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 11T. WernerM
- 19P. JuddF
- 31F. MontaliG
- 4D. RomneyD
- 3P. MarieD
- 17J. JasinskiD
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 16J. SkahanM
- 6I. HarkesM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 9L. JovanovicF
- 1R. BurkiG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 10E. LowenF
- 77S. JeongF
- 11S. BecherF
- 39B. LundtG
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 27F. FallD
- 19C. HolseF
- 7T. OstrakM
- 59M. JoynerM
- 29P. AultM
- 23A. MatanM
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- St. Louis City won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
- 26 April 2026St. Louis City 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 31 May 2025St. Louis City 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 15 February 2025St. Louis City 1–2 San Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 4 July 2024St. Louis City 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City won 3–1 at San Jose Earthquakes. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Edelman 8' for St. Louis City, S. Becher 27' for St. Louis City, B. Leroux 47' for San Jose Earthquakes, S. Becher 55' for St. Louis City. On expected goals it finished 0.19–2.63.