Real Salt Lake
vs
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 41% Real Salt Lake, 27% draw, 32% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.48, Minnesota United FC 1.28.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Real Salt Lake
- D1-1away to St. Louis City2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC23 May 2026
- W2-1Colorado Rapids17 May 2026
Minnesota United FC
- D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026
- D1-1Real Salt Lake23 May 2026
- L1-2away to New England Revolution16 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Salt Lake carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.56 for Minnesota United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Real Salt Lake W-D-L-L-D; Minnesota United FC L-D-L-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.28 for Minnesota United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Salt Lake rate 0.67 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Minnesota United FC rate 0.64 and 1.17.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Salt Lake a 0.7% chance of the title and Minnesota United FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.28 for Minnesota United FC. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.17 for Minnesota United FC.