Los Angeles FC
vs
San Diego
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 44% Los Angeles FC, 25% draw, 31% San Diego — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.65, San Diego 1.35.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Los Angeles FC
- D1-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps1 August 2026
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City26 July 2026
- W3-1Real Salt Lake23 July 2026
- W3-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 July 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 May 2026
San Diego
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
- L2-4Vancouver Whitecaps24 May 2026
- D3-3FC Cincinnati17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 34 |
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Los Angeles FC
No league goals recorded yet.
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Los Angeles FC carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.5 for San Diego. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Los Angeles FC W-W-W-W-D; San Diego D-L-L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Los Angeles FC and 1.35 for San Diego. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles FC rate 0.65 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Diego rate 0.67 and 1.34.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Los Angeles FC a 13.8% chance of the title and San Diego 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 1.35 for San Diego. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.34 for San Diego.