Los Angeles FC vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 0-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Los Angeles FC, 25% draw, 31% San Diego — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Los Angeles FC at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 91Nkosi TafariD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 11T. TillmanM
- 4E. SeguraM
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 19T. BoydF
- 7Son Heung-MinF
- 99D. BouangaF
- 31C. CarterG
- 45K. NielsenD
- 33A. LongD
- 22J. TerryM
- 66M. ChoiniereM
- 36D. GuerraM
- 18J. ShaffelburgF
- 21R. RaposoM
- 17J. EbobisseF
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 27L. BombinoD
- 70A. Alvarado JrM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 9L. MorganF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 8O. ValakariM
- 19D. VazquezM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 99E. AchouriM
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs San Diego
Los Angeles FC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps1 August 2026
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City26 July 2026
- W3-1Real Salt Lake23 July 2026
- W3-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 July 2026
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Los Angeles FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs San Diego
- 3 May 2026San Diego 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2025Los Angeles FC 1–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2025San Diego 3–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and San Diego
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Diego won 1–0 at Los Angeles FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Los Angeles FC at 44% and given a win for San Diego 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: A. Dreyer (penalty) 89' for San Diego. Sent off: Anders Dreyer (San Diego) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.14.