Colorado Rapids
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 45% Colorado Rapids, 27% draw, 28% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.44, Sporting Kansas City 1.08.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Colorado Rapids
- W1-0Austin2 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Louis City26 July 2026
- W1-0San Diego23 July 2026
- L1-2FC Dallas24 May 2026
- L1-2away to Real Salt Lake17 May 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
- W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
- L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026
- L1-2New York Red Bulls24 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 22 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colorado Rapids carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.35 for Sporting Kansas City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Colorado Rapids L-L-W-L-W; Sporting Kansas City L-L-W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.08 for Sporting Kansas City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colorado Rapids rate 0.50 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Kansas City rate 0.55 and 1.52.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colorado Rapids the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Colorado Rapids against 1.08 for Sporting Kansas City. Colorado Rapids's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.52 for Sporting Kansas City.