23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

PayPal Park, San Jose
Full time1 – 5

Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw, 42% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Minnesota United FC at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Jose Earthquakes0%Draw1%Minnesota United FC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Werner (pen)
4'
10'
⚽J. Pereyraassist: A. Markanich
40'
⚽K. Yeboahassist: K. Duncan
44'
⚽K. Yeboahassist: O. Gene
🔁J. A. Gonzalez Mendozaout: I. Harkes
46'
🔁T. Wernerout: D. Johnson
57'
65'
⚽M. Caldeiraassist: K. Duncan
🔁O. Boudaout: P. Marie
66'
🔁N. Tsakirisout: N. Fernandez
66'
77'
🔁O. Geneout: N. Triantis
77'
🔁M. Caldeiraout: T. Chancalay
🔁Vitor Costaout: J. Ricketts
78'
83'
🔁W. Trappout: C. Harvey
83'
🔁K. Yeboahout: M. Gonzalez
Benjamin Kikanović
85'
86'
🔁A. Markanichout: D. Padelford
86'
⚽M. Gonzalezassist: J. Pereyra

Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC

58%Possession42%
11Shots11
6On target7
3Corners3
1.84xG2

Goals against chances

San Jose Earthquakes1 from 1.84 xGless than the chances were worth
Minnesota United FC5 from 2.00 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 28B. KikanovicD
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 87Vitor CostaD
  • 40J. A. Gonzalez MendozaM
  • 34B. LerouxM
  • 7O. BoudaM
  • 10N. TsakirisM
  • 11T. WernerM
  • 19P. JuddF
Substitutes
  • 31F. MontaliG
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 3P. MarieD
  • 17J. JasinskiD
  • 2J. RickettsD
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 9L. JovanovicF
  • 79D. JohnsonF
Coach: Bruce Arena
Minnesota United FC 3-4-1-2
  • 12D. CallenderG
  • 28J. DiazD
  • 15M. BoxallD
  • 23M. DugganD
  • 3K. DuncanM
  • 30O. GeneM
  • 20W. TrappM
  • 13A. MarkanichM
  • 26J. PereyraF
  • 22M. CaldeiraF
  • 9K. YeboahF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SmirG
  • 2D. PadelfordD
  • 67C. HarveyM
  • 24J. GresselM
  • 16A. JacksonM
  • 25N. TriantisD
  • 8T. ChancalayF
  • 18M. GonzalezF
  • 29M. DiengF
Coach: Cameron Knowles

Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
  • D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
  • L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026

Minnesota United FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
  • D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
  • D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026

What these results say

  • San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4San Jose Earthquakes341410105751+652
10Minnesota United FC341111125658-244

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC

  • 29 April 2026San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 Minnesota United FCUS Open Cup
  • 13 July 2025Minnesota United FC 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 9 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 1 September 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 21 July 2024Minnesota United FC 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 1 October 2023Minnesota United FC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd172

Minnesota United FC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Yeboah184

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Minnesota United FC won 5–1 at San Jose Earthquakes. The model had made a win for Minnesota United FC its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Werner (penalty) 4' for San Jose Earthquakes, J. Pereyra 10' for Minnesota United FC, K. Yeboah 40' for Minnesota United FC, K. Yeboah 44' for Minnesota United FC, M. Caldeira 65' for Minnesota United FC, M. Gonzalez 86' for Minnesota United FC. On expected goals it finished 1.84–2.00.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.