San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 36% San Jose Earthquakes, 24% draw, 40% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.64, Minnesota United FC 1.71.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
San Jose Earthquakes
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
- W3-1away to Portland Timbers24 May 2026
- L2-3FC Dallas17 May 2026
Minnesota United FC
- D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026
- D1-1Real Salt Lake23 May 2026
- L1-2away to New England Revolution16 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 33 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd11 goals2 assists
Minnesota United FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
San Jose Earthquakes carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.56 for Minnesota United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): San Jose Earthquakes L-W-L-D-L; Minnesota United FC L-D-L-D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.71 for Minnesota United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.74 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Minnesota United FC rate 0.64 and 1.17.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Jose Earthquakes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Jose Earthquakes a 7% chance of the title and Minnesota United FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.71 for Minnesota United FC. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.17 for Minnesota United FC.