Amed
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 41% Amed, 25% draw, 34% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Amed 1.59, Erzurumspor FK 1.42.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Amed vs Erzurumspor FK
- 18 January 2026Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Amed1. Lig
- 18 August 2025Amed 2–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 16 March 2025Amed 1–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 3 November 2024Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Amed1. Lig
- 15 January 2017Amed 1–1 Erzurumspor FK2. Lig
- 3 September 2016Erzurumspor FK 1–2 Amed2. Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Amed carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.66 for Erzurumspor FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Amed and 1.42 for Erzurumspor FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Amed rate 0.77 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Erzurumspor FK rate 0.73 and 1.09.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Amed against 1.42 for Erzurumspor FK. Amed's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.09 for Erzurumspor FK.