Amed vs Erzurumspor FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Amed 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Amed, 25% draw, 34% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Amed at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amed vs Erzurumspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Alban LafontG
- 21Mehmet YeşilD
- 4David Robert BatesD
- 5Lumbardh DellovaD
- 7Ermal KrasniqiM
- 22Rayan RavelosonM
- 6Cem ÜstündagM
- 11Yira Collins SorM
- 91Dia SabaF
- 99Gift OrbanF
- 45Mbaye DiagneF
- 18Gökhan GülM
- 10Samuel BalletF
- 17Umut MeraşD
- 93Rayan LutinM
- 3Miraç AcerD
- 27Burak BozanG
- 33Amadou CisséD
- 47Kahraman DemirtaşD
- 97Berk KızıldemirM
- 31Matija OrbanićG
- 53Orhan OvacıklıD
- 4Amar GerxhaliuD
- 3Yakup KırtayD
- 18Nihad MujakićD
- 6Brandon BaiyeM
- 11Fernando AndradeM
- 65Martín RodríguezM
- 8Sefa AkgünM
- 99Mustafa FettahogluM
- 10Eren TozluF
- 2Festy EboseleD
- 9Gyrano KerkF
- 5Murat Cem AkpinarM
- 90Nariman AkhundzadeF
- 7İlkan SeverF
- 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
- 22Mustafa YumluD
- 23Cengizhan BayrakD
- 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Amed vs Erzurumspor FK
- 18 January 2026Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Amed1. Lig
- 18 August 2025Amed 2–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 16 March 2025Amed 1–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 3 November 2024Erzurumspor FK 2–0 Amed1. Lig
- 15 January 2017Amed 1–1 Erzurumspor FK2. Lig
Leading scorers: Amed and Erzurumspor FK
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban104
- D. Sabia61
- S. Ballet41
Erzurumspor FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Amed beat Erzurumspor FK 3–0. The model had made a win for Amed its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Dia Saba 53' for Amed, Dia Saba 62' for Amed, Gökhan Gül 70' for Amed. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.32.