Başakşehir
vs
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 71% Başakşehir, 18% draw, 11% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.33, Kocaelispor 0.79.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Kocaelispor
- 6 April 2026Kocaelispor 0–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 31 October 2025Başakşehir 1–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 26 March 2024Başakşehir 5–2 KocaelisporFriendlies Clubs
- 8 October 2021Başakşehir 3–1 KocaelisporFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Başakşehir carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.58 for Kocaelispor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Başakşehir D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for Başakşehir and 0.79 for Kocaelispor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Başakşehir rate 1.15 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kocaelispor rate 0.59 and 1.07.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Başakşehir against 0.79 for Kocaelispor. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.07 for Kocaelispor.