Erzurumspor FK
vs
Galatasaray
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 27% Erzurumspor FK, 25% draw, 48% Galatasaray — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Erzurumspor FK 1.27, Galatasaray 1.75.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Galatasaray
- 27 February 2021Galatasaray 2–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 24 October 2020Erzurumspor FK 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 3 March 2019Erzurumspor FK 1–1 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 28 September 2018Galatasaray 1–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
The two sides
Erzurumspor FK carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.96 for Galatasaray. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.75 for Galatasaray. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Erzurumspor FK rate 0.73 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Galatasaray rate 1.15 and 0.92.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK against 1.75 for Galatasaray. Erzurumspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.92 for Galatasaray.