Konyaspor
vs
Trabzonspor
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Konyaspor, 30% draw, 33% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Konyaspor 1.37, Trabzonspor 1.24.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Konyaspor at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Bahadır Han GüngördüG
- 5Uğurcan YazğılıD
- 22Rayyan BaniyaD
- 4Adil DemirbağD
- 26Arthur MasuakuD
- 8Marko JevtovićM
- 77Melih İbrahimoğluM
- 9Deniz TürüçM
- 66Rajmund TóthM
- 7Diogo GonçalvesM
- 11Jackson MulekaF
- 91Jean-Luc DompéF
- 1Deniz ErtaşG
- 17Yhoan AndzouanaD
- 15Chidozie AwaziemD
- 3Arif BoşlukD
- 16Ata YanıkD
- 45Emir BarsF
- 25Omer CobanogluM
- 19Ebrima ColleyF
- 24André OnanaG
- 20Wagner PinaD
- 27Chibuike NwaiwuD
- 15Stefan SavićD
- 19Mustafa EskihellaçD
- 11Ozan TufanM
- 6FabinhoM
- 7Ernest MuçiM
- 10Mohamed SalahF
- 30Paul OnuachuF
- 58Aral ŞimşirF
- 55Sidny Lopes CabralD
- 70Noah SavioloF
- 9Franculino DjúF
- 25Onuralp ÇevikkanG
- 4Samet AkaydınD
- 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
- 77Metehan MimaroğluF
- 57Melih KabasakalM
- 14Umut NayirF
Form going into Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Konyaspor
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK5 September 2026
- L1-2Kocaelispor29 August 2026
- L2-4away to Fenerbahçe22 August 2026
- L0-1Rizespor15 August 2026
Trabzonspor
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026
- W2-1Başakşehir23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Kasımpaşa15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Konyaspor | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | Trabzonspor | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor
- 12 September 2026Konyaspor 1–0 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 22 May 2026Trabzonspor 2–1 KonyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 27 April 2026Konyaspor 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 29 November 2025Trabzonspor 3–1 KonyasporSüper Lig
- 3 March 2025Konyaspor 1–0 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 29 September 2024Trabzonspor 3–2 KonyasporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Konyaspor and Trabzonspor
Konyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Trabzonspor
- Mohamed Salah4 goals1 assists
- P. Onuachu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.37 goals for Konyaspor and 1.24 for Trabzonspor; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: R. Toth 2' (Konyaspor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Konyaspor the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Konyaspor against 1.24 for Trabzonspor. Konyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.2 for Trabzonspor.