Alanyaspor vs Göztepe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Alanyaspor, 25% draw, 26% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alanyaspor at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 94Florent HadergjonajD
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 5Fidan AlitiD
- 11Ruan Pereira DuarteD
- 55Baran Ali GezekM
- 20Fatih AksoyM
- 42Gaius MakoutaM
- 22Paolo FernandesF
- 9Omar Ben AliF
- 12Meschak EliaF
- 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
- 10Ianis HagiM
- 19Iván CédricF
- 23Mert Furkan BayramG
- 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
- 8Enes KeskinM
- 26İzzet ÇelikM
- 17Arda UsluoğluF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 1Arda ÖzçimenG
- 13Ege YildirimD
- 4Taha AltıkardeşD
- 26Malcom BokeleD
- 2Arda KurtulanM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 6Alex MatosM
- 12Richard AkonnorM
- 8Alexis AntunesF
- 7André HenriqueF
- 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
- 39JandersonF
- 10Efkan BekiroğluM
- 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
- 18Tino AnjorinM
- 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
- 14Bekir Turaç BökeF
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
Alanyaspor
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
- W1-0Beşiktaş23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gaziantep FK15 August 2026
Göztepe
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
- L0-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.23 August 2026
- D3-3away to Samsunspor17 August 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Alanyaspor had two goals or fewer.
- Göztepe did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
- 14 March 2026Göztepe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 19 October 2025Alanyaspor 1–0 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 2 February 2025Göztepe 0–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 23 August 2024Alanyaspor 1–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 19 March 2022Göztepe 0–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Göztepe
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan61
- André Henrique31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alanyaspor and Göztepe drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Alanyaspor at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rhaldney 28' for Göztepe, P. Fernandes 63' for Alanyaspor, Juan (penalty) 73' for Göztepe, G. Makouta 75' for Alanyaspor. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.74.
How the call on Alanyaspor v Göztepe has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Alanyaspor's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Alanyaspor win49%▲ +9
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Göztepe win26%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.