Alanyaspor
vs
Göztepe
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Alanyaspor, 25% draw, 27% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Alanyaspor 2.25, Göztepe 1.37.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alanyaspor at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 94Florent HadergjonajD
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 5Fidan AlitiD
- 11Ruan Pereira DuarteD
- 55Baran Ali GezekM
- 20Fatih AksoyM
- 42Gaius MakoutaM
- 22Paolo FernandesF
- 9Omar Ben AliF
- 12Meschak EliaF
- 88Yusuf ÖzdemirM
- 10Ianis HagiM
- 19Iván CédricF
- 23Mert Furkan BayramG
- 4Bedirhan ÖzyurtD
- 8Enes KeskinM
- 26İzzet ÇelikM
- 17Arda UsluoğluF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 1Arda ÖzçimenG
- 13Ege YildirimD
- 4Taha AltıkardeşD
- 26Malcom BokeleD
- 2Arda KurtulanM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 6Alex MatosM
- 12Richard AkonnorM
- 8Alexis AntunesF
- 7André HenriqueF
- 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
- 39JandersonF
- 10Efkan BekiroğluM
- 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
- 18Tino AnjorinM
- 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
- 14Bekir Turaç BökeF
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
Alanyaspor
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
- W1-0Beşiktaş23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gaziantep FK15 August 2026
Göztepe
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
- L0-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.23 August 2026
- D3-3away to Samsunspor17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alanyaspor | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Göztepe | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Göztepe
- 12 September 2026Alanyaspor 2–2 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 14 March 2026Göztepe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 19 October 2025Alanyaspor 1–0 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 2 February 2025Göztepe 0–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 23 August 2024Alanyaspor 1–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 19 March 2022Göztepe 0–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Göztepe
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Göztepe
- Juan4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.25 goals for Alanyaspor and 1.37 for Göztepe; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Rhaldney 28' (Göztepe), P. Fernandes 63' (Alanyaspor), Juan 73' (Göztepe), G. Makouta 75' (Alanyaspor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alanyaspor the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Alanyaspor against 1.37 for Göztepe. Alanyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.95 for Göztepe.