Saint Etienne vs Montpellier Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Saint Etienne 3-1 Montpellier.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Saint Etienne, 28% draw, 26% Montpellier — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Saint Etienne at 46% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Saint Etienne vs Montpellier
Line-ups
- 30G. LarsonneurG
- 23K. PedroD
- 26J. Le CardinalD
- 18S. NairD
- 6M. BernauerD
- 16T. SvetlinM
- 14A. CsongvaiM
- 20A. BoakyeM
- 22Z. DavitashviliM
- 8T. BalloM
- 7I. CardonaF
- 1M. NdiayeG
- 11B. OldF
- 15C. LambaD
- 13J. FerreiraD
- 10J. BreumM
- 5M. JaberM
- 32A. BaallalM
- 31N. El JamaliM
- 17J. DuffusF
- 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
- 3N. El HannachD
- 15J. LaporteD
- 6Y. MouangaD
- 17T. Sainte-LuceD
- 27D. MeddahM
- 18N. PaysM
- 32H. AbderrebiM
- 5F. TardieuM
- 19N. MukieleM
- 9L. Megnan-PaveF
- 1M. MichelG
- 12O. Eyen
- 90G. AyemM
- 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
- 77Everson JrM
- 44T. ChennahiM
- 39J. HatchiF
- 11M. CamaraF
- 23D. BenlahlouF
Form going into Saint Etienne vs Montpellier
Saint Etienne
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
- W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026
Montpellier
- D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Montpellier | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Saint Etienne vs Montpellier
- 7 February 2026Saint Etienne 1–0 MontpellierLigue 2
- 4 October 2025Montpellier 0–2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 16 March 2025Montpellier 0–2 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- 23 November 2024Saint Etienne 1–0 MontpellierLigue 1
- 31 July 2024Montpellier 1–2 Saint EtienneFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Saint Etienne and Montpellier
Saint Etienne
- I. Cardona4 goals4 assists
- A. Boakye4 goals3 assists
- T. Ballo4 goals2 assists
Montpellier
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.