5 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

Metz vs Rodez Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Metz 4-1 Rodez.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Metz, 26% draw, 22% Rodez — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Metz at 52% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Metz99%Draw1%Rodez0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Pape Moussa Fallassist: Florian Miguel
8'
Jean Ruiz
24'
35'
⚽Corentin Issanchou Roubiouassist: Kenny Nagera
⚽Jessy Deminguetassist: Teji Savanier
39'
⚽Pape Moussa Fall
42'
🔁Jean Ruizout: Urie-Michel Mboula
45'
🔁Florian Miguelout: Maxime Colin
45'
⚽Pape Moussa Fallassist: Jessy Deminguet
58'
Giorgi Abuashvili
62'
🔁Jessy Deminguetout: Nampalys Mendy
66'
68'
🔁Damjan Pavlovićout: Mathis Saka
68'
🔁Octave Jolyout: Antonin Cartillier
🔁Giorgi Abuashviliout: Hamza Kadamani
74'
74'
🔁Mathis Touhoout: Nachon Nsingi
🔁Teji Savanierout: Abdoulaye Agne Ba
78'
78'
🔁Corentin Issanchou Roubiouout: Ryan Ponti
78'
🔁Kenny Nageraout: Kelian Nsona

Match stats — Metz vs Rodez

57%Possession43%
18Shots18
8On target6
7Corners7

Line-ups

Metz 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 70B. SarrD
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 5J. RuizD
  • 3F. MiguelD
  • 8J. DeminguetM
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 9G. AbuashviliM
  • 10T. SavanierM
  • 21J. PandoreM
  • 11P. M. FallF
Substitutes
  • 61P. SyG
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 4M. MboulaD
  • 98I. MohamedD
  • 6N. MendyM
  • 88A. BaF
  • 33A. MbodjiF
  • 38H. KadamaniM
  • 22N. MbalaF
Coach: Luc Holtz
Rodez 5-3-2
  • 16L. MargueronG
  • 13C. IssanchouD
  • 24L. Laurent
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 8D. PavlovicM
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 11M. TouhoF
Substitutes
  • 30E. CrombezG
  • 17D. Vangi
  • 29A. Cartillier
  • 28S. LuyambulaD
  • 10M. SakaM
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 21K. NsonaM
  • 27M. EssimiF
  • 9N. NsingiF
Coach: Didier Santini

Form going into Metz vs Rodez

Metz

  • D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
  • D1-1Laval22 August 2026

Rodez

  • D2-2PAU28 August 2026
  • W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Metz7241107+310
14Rodez72141416-27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Metz vs Rodez

  • 2 May 2025Metz 3–3 RodezLigue 2
  • 23 August 2024Rodez 1–3 MetzLigue 2
  • 31 January 2023Metz 1–1 RodezLigue 2
  • 30 August 2022Rodez 1–4 MetzLigue 2

Leading scorers: Metz and Rodez

Metz

  • P. Fall5 goals
  • J. Deminguet2 goals2 assists

Rodez

  • I. Baldé5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.