Lens
vs
Lorient
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 71% Lens, 17% draw, 12% Lorient — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Lens 2.68, Lorient 1.06.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lens vs Lorient
- 14 March 2026Lorient 2–1 LensLigue 1
- 2 November 2025Lens 3–0 LorientLigue 1
- 3 May 2024Lens 2–0 LorientLigue 1
- 4 November 2023Lorient 0–0 LensLigue 1
- 21 May 2023Lorient 1–3 LensLigue 1
- 9 February 2023Lorient 1–1 LensCoupe de France
The two sides
Lens carry a model rating of 7.15 against 6.83 for Lorient. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.68 goals for Lens and 1.06 for Lorient. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lens rate 1.43 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lorient rate 0.96 and 0.99.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lens the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Lens against 1.06 for Lorient. Lens's attack/defence rating is 1.43/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/0.99 for Lorient.