Reims
vs
Guingamp
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 93% Reims, 5% draw, 2% Guingamp — fair odds of 1.08, 20.00 and 50.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Reims 5.00, Guingamp 1.02.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 93%, under 2.5: 7%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Reims
- D3-3Dunkerque14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot8 August 2026
Guingamp
- L0-1away to Sochaux21 August 2026
- W1-0Boulogne14 August 2026
- L1-2away to Metz8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Reims | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Reims
- Y. Fofana2 goals
Guingamp
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Reims carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.33 for Guingamp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Reims D-D; Guingamp L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 5.00 goals for Reims and 1.02 for Guingamp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Reims rate 1.57 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guingamp rate 0.65 and 1.87.
That points to 93% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 4-1 (7%), 5-1 (7%), 4-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Guingamp, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Reims the highest probability at 93%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 5 expected goals for Reims against 1.02 for Guingamp. Reims's attack/defence rating is 1.57/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.87 for Guingamp.