4 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

PAU vs Sochaux Ligue 2 prediction & result

Nouste Camp, Pau
Full time1 – 1

Final score: PAU 1-1 Sochaux.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% PAU, 30% draw, 30% Sochaux — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAU at 40% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAU5%Draw93%Sochaux2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Samy Baghdadi
⚽L. Rajot
29'
34'
Saad Agouzoul
52'
Saad Agouzoul
52'
Saad Agouzoul
56'
🔁S. Baghdadiout: B. Youssouf
56'
🔁L. Nomelout: B. Gomel
65'
🔁D. Gomisout: D. Tavares
65'
🔁B. Fofanaout: M. Clairicia
66'
⚽M. Clairiciaassist: B. Youssouf
🔁L. Rajotout: L. Gadegbeku
68'
🔁B. Leyeout: A. Lefebvre
72'
🔁C. Fallout: B. Brahimi
72'
🔁T. Pouillyout: M. Tourraine
82'
🔁A. Brianconout: R. Mimb Baheng
82'
82'
🔁K. Djocoout: J. Mexique
Mathys Tourraine
90+5'

Match stats — PAU vs Sochaux

56%Possession44%
19Shots12
8On target4
8Corners1

Line-ups

PAU 5-3-2
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 23A. BrianconD
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 97A. AbdallahD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 9B. LeyeF
  • 7H. BenaliF
Substitutes
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 22R. Mimb BahengD
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 19T. SaettelF
  • 10B. BrahimiM
  • 14R. Openda
Coach: Thierry Debes
Sochaux 4-2-3-1
  • 40M. JeanninG
  • 26E. N'GattaD
  • 14M. PeybernesD
  • 97S. AgouzoulD
  • 3D. Gomis
  • 21B. DiawaraM
  • 23J. MassonM
  • 77L. NomelM
  • 5S. BaghdadiM
  • 10B. FofanaM
  • 9K. DjocoF
Substitutes
  • 30A. PierreG
  • 17B. YoussoufD
  • 42D. TavaresD
  • 15J. MexiqueM
  • 8H. BayanginisaM
  • 11L. DeedsonF
  • 91M. ClairiciaF
  • 7B. GomelF
  • 33N. K. Mouyema
Coach: Vincent Hognon

Form going into PAU vs Sochaux

PAU

  • D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
  • L0-1Nancy21 August 2026

Sochaux

  • D0-0away to Clermont Foot28 August 2026
  • W1-0Guingamp21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10PAU72236608
8Sochaux724145-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAU vs Sochaux

  • 15 April 2023Sochaux 2–3 PAULigue 2
  • 20 August 2022PAU 0–3 SochauxLigue 2
  • 22 April 2022PAU 0–1 SochauxLigue 2
  • 3 December 2021Sochaux 2–1 PAULigue 2
  • 17 April 2021Sochaux 1–1 PAULigue 2
  • 15 December 2020PAU 0–0 SochauxLigue 2

Leading scorers: PAU and Sochaux

PAU

  • B. Leye3 goals

Sochaux

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.