PAU
vs
Sochaux
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 46% PAU, 29% draw, 25% Sochaux — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: PAU 1.38, Sochaux 0.94.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
PAU
- W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026
- L0-1Annecy8 August 2026
Sochaux
- D0-0away to RED Star FC 9314 August 2026
- L0-3Saint Etienne8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | PAU | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Sochaux | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: PAU vs Sochaux
- 15 April 2023Sochaux 2–3 PAULigue 2
- 20 August 2022PAU 0–3 SochauxLigue 2
- 22 April 2022PAU 0–1 SochauxLigue 2
- 3 December 2021Sochaux 2–1 PAULigue 2
- 17 April 2021Sochaux 1–1 PAULigue 2
- 15 December 2020PAU 0–0 SochauxLigue 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
PAU carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.76 for Sochaux. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): PAU L-W; Sochaux L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for PAU and 0.94 for Sochaux. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PAU rate 0.96 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sochaux rate 0.51 and 0.76.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAU the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PAU against 0.94 for Sochaux. PAU's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/0.76 for Sochaux.