Le Havre
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 47% Le Havre, 26% draw, 27% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Le Havre 1.59, Stade Brestois 29 1.15.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29
- 8 March 2026Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 29 October 2025Le Havre 1–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 26 January 2025Le Havre 0–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 6 October 2024Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 3 March 2024Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 20 August 2023Le Havre 1–2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Le Havre carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.69 for Stade Brestois 29. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Le Havre and 1.15 for Stade Brestois 29. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Havre rate 0.85 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Brestois 29 rate 0.70 and 0.99.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Havre the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Le Havre against 1.15 for Stade Brestois 29. Le Havre's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.99 for Stade Brestois 29.