Elche
vs
Real Sociedad
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 53% Elche, 21% draw, 26% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.89, 4.76 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Elche 2.21, Real Sociedad 1.53.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Elche
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna17 August 2026
Real Sociedad
- L0-1away to Real Betis21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Elche vs Real Sociedad
- 7 February 2026Real Sociedad 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 7 November 2025Elche 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 19 March 2023Real Sociedad 2–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 27 August 2022Elche 0–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 10 April 2022Elche 1–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 26 September 2021Real Sociedad 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Elche carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.73 for Real Sociedad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Elche D-L; Real Sociedad L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Elche and 1.53 for Real Sociedad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Elche rate 0.90 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad rate 1.00 and 1.30.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Elche the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Elche against 1.53 for Real Sociedad. Elche's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.3 for Real Sociedad.