Asteras Tripolis
vs
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 64% Asteras Tripolis, 21% draw, 15% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 2.05, Iraklis 1908 0.89.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Asteras Tripolis
- L1-3away to Panetolikos23 August 2026
Iraklis 1908
- L0-4away to AEK Athens FC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Iraklis 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Asteras Tripolis
- F. Macheda1 goals
Iraklis 1908
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Asteras Tripolis carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.42 for Iraklis 1908. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Asteras Tripolis L; Iraklis 1908 L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.89 for Iraklis 1908. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Asteras Tripolis rate 0.84 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iraklis 1908 rate 0.53 and 1.29.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Asteras Tripolis the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis against 0.89 for Iraklis 1908. Asteras Tripolis's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.29 for Iraklis 1908.