Libertad Asuncion
vs
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Libertad Asuncion 2-2 Club Guarani.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Libertad Asuncion, 27% draw, 29% Club Guarani — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Libertad Asuncion 1.57, Club Guarani 1.18.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Model insights: Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad Asuncion at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. MorínigoG
- 2A. BenítezD
- 3R. RojasD
- 5G. FloresD
- 4N. GiménezD
- 8F. CarrizoM
- 20H. FernándezM
- 21L. SanabriaM
- 19I. FrancoM
- 9G. AguilarF
- 11E. VeraF
- 13J. BogarínM
- 30O. AcuñaF
- 38J. Estigarribia MezaD
- 28M. FernándezF
- 31T. FernándezD
- 7A. ManzurM
- 33C. MartínezM
- 32L. NequecaurF
- 26I. RamirezF
- 31M. MartínezG
- 4A. MéndezD
- 2I. SegoviaD
- 15T. ServínD
- 33L. AllendeD
- 36L. MartínezM
- 34M. MaldonadoM
- 10M. AñascoM
- 25G. GómezM
- 17V. CéspedesM
- 9J. RecaldeF
- 12G. DionisiG
- 40F. FernándezF
- 26D. FernándezF
- 11J. GarcíaF
- 23M. JacquetD
- 29F. LlanoM
- 14R. RodríguezD
- 39C. RolónD
- 16Lucas Mario Romañach DoriaM
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
Libertad Asuncion
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026
- L0-1Olimpia28 September 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano19 September 2026
- W2-0away to 2 de Mayo11 September 2026
Club Guarani
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Trinidense18 September 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 September 2026
What these results say
- Libertad Asuncion scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Libertad Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
- Club Guarani went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Club Guarani scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
- 11 October 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 August 2026Club Guarani 2–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 5 April 2026Club Guarani 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 February 2026Libertad Asuncion 3–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 9 November 2025Club Guarani 1–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 October 2025Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club GuaraniCopa Paraguay
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Club Guarani
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera152
- I. Ramirez33
Club Guarani
GoalsAssists
- S. Zaracho31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.57 goals for Libertad Asuncion and 1.18 for Club Guarani; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Gustavo Aguilar 16' (Libertad Asuncion), Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells 21' (Club Guarani), Federico Carrizo 56' (Club Guarani), Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez 77' (Libertad Asuncion).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion against 1.18 for Club Guarani. Libertad Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.24 for Club Guarani.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.