Zrinjski
vs
Radnik Bijeljina
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Zrinjski 3–0 Radnik Bijeljina
The model makes it 76% Zrinjski, 15% draw, 9% Radnik Bijeljina — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Zrinjski 3.20, Radnik Bijeljina 0.87.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Zrinjski are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zrinjski are top on 24 points from 9 games; Radnik Bijeljina are bottom on 7 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- Zrinjski have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-2 win away to Sloga Doboj.
- Radnik Bijeljina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
- Last 6 meetings: Zrinjski 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 September 2026, ended Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Zrinjski.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zrinjski vs Radnik Bijeljina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zrinjski at 76% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zrinjski vs Radnik Bijeljina
Zrinjski
- W6-2away to Sloga Doboj11 October 2026
- W2-0Velež19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Borac Banja Luka12 September 2026
- W2-1Siroki Brijeg6 September 2026
- W3-1BSK Banja Luka1 September 2026
Radnik Bijeljina
- W3-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo11 October 2026
- D4-4away to BSK Banja Luka19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Čelik11 September 2026
- L1-2Sloga Doboj5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Velež2 September 2026
What these results say
- Zrinjski won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Radnik Bijeljina.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 24 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zrinjski
Chance to win the league · 52% today
Radnik Bijeljina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zrinjski vs Radnik Bijeljina
- 27 September 2026Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 ZrinjskiFriendlies Clubs
- 16 August 2026Radnik Bijeljina 1–5 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 9 May 2026Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 15 April 2026Zrinjski 2–0 Radnik BijeljinaCup
- 8 April 2026Radnik Bijeljina 0–0 ZrinjskiCup
- 8 March 2026Zrinjski 2–1 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
The two sides
Zrinjski carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.04 for Radnik Bijeljina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.20 goals for Zrinjski and 0.87 for Radnik Bijeljina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zrinjski rate 0.76 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnik Bijeljina rate 0.50 and 2.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zrinjski a 51.9% chance of the title and Radnik Bijeljina 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zrinjski the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.20 expected goals for Zrinjski against 0.87 for Radnik Bijeljina. Zrinjski's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.59 for Radnik Bijeljina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zrinjski at home · Radnik Bijeljina away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Zrinjski 9, Radnik Bijeljina 9.
Zrinjski score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Radnik Bijeljina have let in 5 there.
Radnik Bijeljina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Zrinjski have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zrinjski
- at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 49%
- vs FK Sarajevo7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 54%
- at BSK Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 56%
- at Siroki Brijeg28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 53%
Radnik Bijeljina
- vs Siroki Brijeg31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 42%
- at Borac Banja Luka7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 8%
- vs Velež21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 44%
- at Sloga Doboj28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.