Bukovyna vs Polessya Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Bukovyna 2-2 Polessya.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Bukovyna, 29% draw, 47% Polessya — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polessya at 47% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bukovyna vs Polessya
Line-ups
- 94H. PenkovG
- 24A. BuskoD
- 5V. PryymakD
- 2D. KarasD
- 95P. StasyukD
- 44V. VitenchukM
- 97O. IlyinM
- 20M. ZaderakaM
- 25V. GrushaM
- 11V. DakhnovskyiM
- 7O. KozhushkoF
- 21D. KravchukF
- 9R. DadashovF
- 77M. KlepačF
- 17F. BabakM
- 12Y. PidlepenetsM
- 6V. TankovskyiM
- 18E. OdinakaD
- 4T. SakivD
- 3M. BezuglyiD
- 1O. KudrykG
- 31G. MaisuradzeD
- 44S. ChobotenkoD
- 5E. SarapiyD
- 4M. KravchenkoD
- 8R. BabenkoM
- 7O. NazarenkoM
- 14L. EmërllahuM
- 27O. FedorM
- 45M. BragaruM
- 89M. GayduchykF
- 15B. MykhailichenkoD
- 95I. KrasnopirF
- 16I. KrasniqiD
- 55B. KrushynskyiD
- 94D. GryshkevychD
- 10V. VeletenM
- 18O. AndrievskyiM
- 19V. ShepelevM
- 22A. AraujoD
Form going into Bukovyna vs Polessya
Bukovyna
- L0-2away to FC Kharkiv19 September 2026
- D1-1Zorya Luhansk13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi6 September 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Kyiv31 August 2026
Polessya
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
- W1-0Livyi Bereh13 September 2026
- W5-1Kudrivka4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bukovyna failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bukovyna had two goals or fewer.
- Polessya won every one of these 4 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Polessya kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bukovyna vs Polessya
- 11 October 2026Bukovyna 2–2 PolessyaPremier League
- 18 March 2025Polessya 0–0 BukovynaFriendlies Clubs
- 13 November 2022Bukovyna 1–2 PolessyaPersha Liga
- 25 September 2022Polessya 2–0 BukovynaPersha Liga
- 23 October 2019Polessya 2–2 BukovynaDruha Liga - Group A
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.