Round of 16 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Rosario Central vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction

Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario

Our model says: Rosario Central 1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza

The model makes it 55% Rosario Central, 27% draw, 18% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.62, Gimnasia Mendoza 0.70.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Rosario Central: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Rosario Central are top in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 34 points from 16 games; Gimnasia Mendoza are 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 22 points from 16 games.
  • Rosario Central are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Independiente Rivadavia.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rosario Central vs Gimnasia Mendoza

41%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rosario Central win Draw Gimnasia Mendoza win
  1. 1–015%
  2. 2–013%
  3. 1–112%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Rosario Central first; the other scorelines share the remaining 27%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Rosario Central at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rosario Central vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Rosario Central

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto7 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Sarmiento Junin31 October 2026
  • W2-0Huracan25 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Atletico Tucuman17 October 2026
  • W5-0Independiente Rivadavia11 October 2026

Gimnasia Mendoza

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1Independiente Rivadavia7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Lanus1 November 2026
  • L1-2Platense23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 October 2026
  • W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rosario Central won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Rosario Central1610422612+1434
8Gimnasia Mendoza166461817+122

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Gimnasia Mendoza

Rosario Central

GoalsAssists

  • Á. Di María115
  • G. Ávila73

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rosario Central Gimnasia Mendoza
1.02 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.76
0.99 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.29
1.62 Model expected goals (this match) 0.70

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rosario Central against 0.70 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Rosario Central's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.29 for Gimnasia Mendoza.

How the model reaches 55% for Rosario Central to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Rosario Central to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Rosario Central's ratings add 7 points and Gimnasia Mendoza's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 55%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage41%+6
  3. Rosario Central's ratings48%+7
  4. Gimnasia Mendoza's ratings55%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Rosario CentralGimnasia Mendoza
35Matches32
20W 8D 7LRecord11W 8D 13L
51 1.5 per gameGoals scored32 1.0 per game
31 0.9 per gameGoals conceded39 1.2 per game
12 of 35Clean sheets9 of 32
6 of 35Failed to score11 of 32
4 of 5Penalties scored2 of 3
82 2.3 per gameYellow cards78 2.4 per game
4Red cards5
4-2-3-1 27×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Rosario Central at home · Gimnasia Mendoza away

18Played16
11W 4D 3LRecord3W 4D 9L
29–13Goals for – against12–25
7 of 18Clean sheets3 of 16

League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Rosario Central 35, Gimnasia Mendoza 32.

Rosario Central scored 63109614
Gimnasia Mendoza conceded 6346614

Rosario Central score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Gimnasia Mendoza have let in 14 there.

Gimnasia Mendoza scored 648543
Rosario Central conceded 2411339

Gimnasia Mendoza score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Rosario Central have let in 11 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.