Gimnasia La Plata
vs
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Newell's Old Boys
The model makes it 46% Gimnasia La Plata, 30% draw, 24% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 1.38, Newell's Old Boys 0.87.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Gimnasia La Plata are 3rd in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 31 points from 16 games; Newell's Old Boys are 6th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 23 points from 16 games.
- Gimnasia La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Belgrano Cordoba.
- Newell's Old Boys are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Instituto Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: Gimnasia La Plata 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 November 2024, ended Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Newell's Old Boys.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gimnasia La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys
Has the model earned this number?
Gimnasia La Plata at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys
Gimnasia La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1Belgrano Cordoba5 November 2026
- W2-1away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto30 October 2026
- W2-0Sarmiento Junin23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Huracan15 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Tucuman9 October 2026
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba8 November 2026
- D1-1Union Santa Fe1 November 2026
- D0-0away to San Lorenzo24 October 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newell's Old Boys failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newell's Old Boys conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 31 |
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys
- 9 November 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 July 2023Newell's Old Boys 2–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 11 September 2022Newell's Old Boys 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 May 2022Gimnasia La Plata 3–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 October 2021Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 April 2021Gimnasia La Plata 2–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Newell's Old Boys
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres102
- A. Auzmendi84
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata against 0.87 for Newell's Old Boys. Gimnasia La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.18 for Newell's Old Boys.
How the model reaches 46% for Gimnasia La Plata to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Gimnasia La Plata to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Gimnasia La Plata's ratings add 3 points and Newell's Old Boys's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage41%+6
- Gimnasia La Plata's ratings44%+3
- Newell's Old Boys's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gimnasia La Plata at home · Newell's Old Boys away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Gimnasia La Plata 34, Newell's Old Boys 32.
Gimnasia La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Newell's Old Boys have let in 9 there.
Newell's Old Boys score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Gimnasia La Plata have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.