FK Zalgiris Vilnius
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
The model makes it 34% FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 20% draw, 46% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.94, 5.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2.06, HNK Hajduk Split 2.39.
Both teams to score: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
No earlier matches on record this season.
HNK Hajduk Split
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
No league goals recorded yet.
HNK Hajduk Split
- R. Pukštas1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FK Zalgiris Vilnius carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.48 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Zalgiris Vilnius W-W-L-W; HNK Hajduk Split L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 2.39 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius rate 0.53 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.89 and 2.06.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 80% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius against 2.39 for HNK Hajduk Split. FK Zalgiris Vilnius's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/2.06 for HNK Hajduk Split.