28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Rodez vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Rodez 2-2 PAU.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% Rodez, 17% draw, 15% PAU — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rodez at 68% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rodez8%Draw89%PAU3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽B. Leyeassist: J. Benet
Raphaël Lipinski
3'
⚽I. Baldeassist: R. Lipinski
28'
37'
⚽B. Leyeassist: A. Briancon
45+3'
Hacene Benali
59'
🔁A. Abdallahout: S. Basse
59'
🔁B. Leyeout: A. Lefebvre
🔁R. Pontiout: E. Jean-Lambert
64'
🔁C. Issanchouout: S. Luyambula
64'
🔁M. Touhoout: K. Nagera
64'
64'
🔁L. Rajotout: L. Gadegbeku
68'
🔁A. Brianconout: G. Paquiez
68'
🔁H. Benaliout: A. Mbaye
Loni Laurent
70'
🔁D. Pavlovicout: O. Joly
72'
⚽O. Jolyassist: M. Magnin
83'
🔁L. Laurentout: N. Nsingi
85'
Mathis Magnin
89'

Match stats — Rodez vs PAU

58%Possession42%
10Shots14
5On target2
5Corners3

Line-ups

Rodez 5-3-2
  • 16L. MargueronG
  • 13C. IssanchouD
  • 24L. Laurent
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 8D. PavlovicM
  • 29A. Cartillier
  • 18I. BaldeF
  • 11M. TouhoF
Substitutes
  • 30E. CrombezG
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 17D. Vangi
  • 28S. LuyambulaD
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 26S. BenchammaM
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 9N. NsingiF
Coach: Didier Santini
PAU 5-3-2
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 88A. BambaD
  • 23A. BrianconD
  • 97A. AbdallahD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 7H. BenaliF
  • 9B. LeyeF
Substitutes
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 19T. SaettelF
  • 14R. Openda
  • 56A. MbayeF
Coach: Thierry Debes

Form going into Rodez vs PAU

Rodez

  • W5-2away to Nantes22 August 2026

PAU

  • L0-1Nancy21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Rodez72141416-27
10PAU72236608

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodez vs PAU

  • 3 January 2026PAU 3–3 RodezLigue 2
  • 26 September 2025Rodez 1–2 PAULigue 2
  • 14 February 2025PAU 0–5 RodezLigue 2
  • 6 December 2024Rodez 1–0 PAULigue 2
  • 3 August 2024Rodez 1–4 PAUFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rodez and PAU

Rodez

  • I. Baldé5 goals

PAU

  • B. Leye3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.