Rodez
vs
PAU
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 66% Rodez, 17% draw, 17% PAU — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Rodez 2.77, PAU 1.39.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rodez
- W3-1Laval8 August 2026
PAU
- L0-1Annecy8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rodez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 15 | PAU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Rodez vs PAU
- 3 January 2026PAU 3–3 RodezLigue 2
- 26 September 2025Rodez 1–2 PAULigue 2
- 14 February 2025PAU 0–5 RodezLigue 2
- 6 December 2024Rodez 1–0 PAULigue 2
- 3 August 2024Rodez 1–4 PAUFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers
Rodez
- O. Joly1 goals
- C. Roubiou1 goals
PAU
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rodez carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.69 for PAU. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rodez W; PAU L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.77 goals for Rodez and 1.39 for PAU. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rodez rate 1.22 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAU rate 0.87 and 1.20.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rodez the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Rodez against 1.39 for PAU. Rodez's attack/defence rating is 1.22/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.2 for PAU.