Montpellier
vs
Boulogne
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 66% Montpellier, 24% draw, 10% Boulogne — fair odds of 1.52, 4.17 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Montpellier 1.72, Boulogne 0.53.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Montpellier
- D1-1Dijon8 August 2026
Boulogne
- D0-0Nancy8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Montpellier | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Boulogne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Boulogne
- 16 January 2026Boulogne 1–0 MontpellierLigue 2
- 23 September 2025Montpellier 1–3 BoulogneLigue 2
The two sides
Montpellier carry a model rating of 7 against 6.54 for Boulogne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Montpellier D; Boulogne D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Montpellier and 0.53 for Boulogne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Montpellier rate 0.82 in attack and 0.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boulogne rate 0.57 and 1.11.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 34% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (18%), 2-0 (16%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montpellier the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Montpellier against 0.53 for Boulogne. Montpellier's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.11 for Boulogne.