28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Montpellier vs Boulogne Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Montpellier 0-0 Boulogne.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Montpellier, 24% draw, 17% Boulogne — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Montpellier at 59% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Montpellier7%Draw92%Boulogne1%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Benjamin Besic
Florian Tardieu
23'
⚽Florian Tardieu (pen)
29'
Naoufel El Hannach
41'
51'
Théo Brusco
🔁N. Vidal-Cartouxout: G. Ayem
60'
🔁N. Mukieleout: Y. Issoufou
61'
63'
🔁J. Bultelout: J. Martin
63'
🔁A. Platretout: A. Nassiri
74'
🔁T. Epaillyout: M. Soumah
74'
🔁B. Besicout: N. Fatar
80'
Théo Brusco
80'
Théo Brusco
83'
🔁out: A. Pinot
🔁N. El Hannachout: D. Benlahlou
90+2'

Match stats — Montpellier vs Boulogne

68%Possession32%
12Shots13
6On target8
7Corners1

Line-ups

Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3N. El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 27D. MeddahD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 32H. AbderrebiM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 19N. MukieleM
  • 9L. Megnan-PaveF
Substitutes
  • 1M. MichelG
  • 35M. ChambonD
  • 90G. AyemM
  • 77Everson JrM
  • 7Y. IssoufouF
  • 23D. BenlahlouF
  • 34T. DialloD
Coach: Zoumana Camara
Boulogne 5-3-2
  • 99B. NoukeuG
  • 21A. PlatretD
  • 18D. ThiamD
  • 25A. KerriouD
  • 20T. BruscoD
  • 12J. BoyerD
  • 14J. BultelM
  • 19N. BinetM
  • 64T. EpaillyM
  • 10A. HbouchF
  • 17B. BesicF
Substitutes
  • 1X. LenogueG
  • 15A. PinotD
  • 26O. LenneD
  • 8J. MartinM
  • 36M. SoumahM
  • 11N. FatarF
  • 7A. NassiriM
Coach: Fabien Dagneaux

Form going into Montpellier vs Boulogne

Montpellier

  • W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026

Boulogne

  • D1-1RED Star FC 9321 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Montpellier733165+112
17Boulogne705235-25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Boulogne

  • 16 January 2026Boulogne 1–0 MontpellierLigue 2
  • 23 September 2025Montpellier 1–3 BoulogneLigue 2
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.