Lille
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 38% Lille, 29% draw, 33% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lille 1.25, Paris Saint Germain 1.14.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain
- 16 January 2026Paris Saint Germain 3–0 LilleLigue 1
- 5 October 2025Lille 1–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 1 March 2025Paris Saint Germain 4–1 LilleLigue 1
- 1 September 2024Lille 1–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 10 February 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 LilleLigue 1
- 17 December 2023Lille 1–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lille carry a model rating of 7.08 against 7.14 for Paris Saint Germain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Lille and 1.14 for Paris Saint Germain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lille rate 0.88 in attack and 0.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris Saint Germain rate 1.33 and 0.75.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lille against 1.14 for Paris Saint Germain. Lille's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/0.75 for Paris Saint Germain.