Walsall
vs
Oldham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Walsall 1–0 Oldham
The model makes it 40% Walsall, 29% draw, 31% Oldham — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Walsall 1.49, Oldham 1.15.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Walsall are 7th on 14 points from 8 games; Oldham are 21st on 7 points from 8 games — League Two.
- Walsall are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tranmere.
- Oldham have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Salford City.
- Last 6 meetings: Walsall 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 December 2025, ended Walsall 1–2 Oldham.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Walsall vs Oldham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Walsall at 40% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Walsall vs Oldham
Walsall
- D1-1away to Tranmere26 September 2026
- W2-0Port Vale19 September 2026
- D0-0Rochdale12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Crewe1 September 2026
Oldham
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town1 September 2026
What these results say
- Walsall went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Walsall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Walsall had two goals or fewer.
- Oldham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Walsall vs Oldham
- 29 December 2025Walsall 1–2 OldhamLeague Two
- 10 December 2025Oldham 0–1 WalsallLeague Two
- 15 March 2022Walsall 2–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 19 October 2021Oldham 1–3 WalsallLeague Two
- 16 January 2021Walsall 1–1 OldhamLeague Two
- 15 December 2020Oldham 2–3 WalsallLeague Two
Leading scorers: Walsall and Oldham
Walsall
- A. Pressley4 goals
Oldham
- C. Kavanagh4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Walsall carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.14 for Oldham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Walsall and 1.15 for Oldham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Walsall rate 0.48 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oldham rate 0.51 and 2.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Walsall a 4.1% chance of the title and Oldham 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Walsall the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Walsall against 1.15 for Oldham. Walsall's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.13 for Oldham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Walsall at home · Oldham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Walsall 8, Oldham 8.
Walsall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Oldham have let in 3 there.
Oldham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Walsall have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Walsall
- vs Salford City26 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- at Colchester31 Oct · League Twowin 32%
Oldham
- at Barnet24 Oct · League Twowin 27%
- vs Crawley Town31 Oct · League Twowin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.