Northampton
vs
Tranmere
League Two prediction
Our model says: Northampton 2–1 Tranmere
The model makes it 44% Northampton, 28% draw, 28% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Northampton 1.73, Tranmere 1.14.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Northampton are 22nd on 6 points from 7 games; Tranmere are 12th on 11 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Northampton have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rotherham.
- Tranmere are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Chesterfield.
- Last 6 meetings: Northampton 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 May 2023, ended Tranmere 0–1 Northampton.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Northampton vs Tranmere
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Northampton at 44% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Northampton vs Tranmere
Northampton
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
- W1-0Newport County5 September 2026
- D1-1Crawley Town1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gillingham29 August 2026
Tranmere
- L2-4away to Chesterfield3 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gillingham12 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham5 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Northampton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Northampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tranmere had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Northampton vs Tranmere
- 8 May 2023Tranmere 0–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 3 December 2022Northampton 0–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 5 March 2022Northampton 3–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 23 October 2021Tranmere 0–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 5 February 2019Tranmere 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 1 September 2018Northampton 1–1 TranmereLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Northampton carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6 for Tranmere. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Northampton and 1.14 for Tranmere. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Northampton rate 0.47 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tranmere rate 0.46 and 2.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tranmere, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Northampton a 0.7% chance of the title and Tranmere 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Northampton the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Northampton against 1.14 for Tranmere. Northampton's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.52 for Tranmere.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Northampton at home · Tranmere away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Northampton 7, Tranmere 9.
Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Tranmere have let in 0 there.
Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Northampton have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Northampton
- vs Colchester24 Oct · League Twowin 37%
Tranmere
- at Crawley Town24 Oct · League Twowin 35%
- vs Cheltenham31 Oct · League Twowin 36%
- at Fleetwood Town14 Nov · League Twowin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.