York
vs
Accrington Stanley
League Two prediction
Our model says: York 2–1 Accrington Stanley
The model makes it 50% York, 26% draw, 24% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: York 2.17, Accrington Stanley 1.12.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- York are 6th on 14 points from 8 games; Accrington Stanley are 16th on 10 points from 9 games — League Two.
- York have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Gillingham.
- Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Cheltenham.
- Last 6 meetings: Accrington Stanley 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 July 2023, ended Accrington Stanley 2–0 York.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: York vs Accrington Stanley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts York at 50% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into York vs Accrington Stanley
York
- W3-0Gillingham26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chesterfield19 September 2026
- W4-0Swindon Town12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Cheltenham1 September 2026
Accrington Stanley
- W2-0Cheltenham3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
- W3-2Crawley Town5 September 2026
What these results say
- York scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 16 | Accrington Stanley | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: York vs Accrington Stanley
- 29 July 2023Accrington Stanley 2–0 YorkFriendlies Clubs
- 23 April 2016Accrington Stanley 3–0 YorkLeague Two
- 28 November 2015York 1–5 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 7 November 2015Accrington Stanley 3–2 YorkFA Cup
- 21 March 2015Accrington Stanley 2–2 YorkLeague Two
- 26 December 2014York 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
Leading scorers: York and Accrington Stanley
York
- A. Newby6 goals1 assist
- O. Pearce3 goals4 assists
Accrington Stanley
- C. Caton5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
York carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.05 for Accrington Stanley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for York and 1.12 for Accrington Stanley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
York rate 0.66 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Accrington Stanley rate 0.46 and 2.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives York a 22.6% chance of the title and Accrington Stanley 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives York the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for York against 1.12 for Accrington Stanley. York's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.26 for Accrington Stanley.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
York at home · Accrington Stanley away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: York 8, Accrington Stanley 9.
Accrington Stanley score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); York have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
York
- vs Port Vale24 Oct · League Twowin 44%
- at Grimsby31 Oct · League Twowin 34%
Accrington Stanley
- at Rochdale24 Oct · League Twowin 31%
- vs Northampton31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- at Port Vale14 Nov · League Twowin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.