Rennes vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Rennes 1-0 Marseille.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Rennes, 27% draw, 33% Marseille — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rennes vs Marseille
Line-ups
- 30B. SambaG
- 95P. FrankowskiD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 45M. CamaraM
- 21V. RongierM
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 10L. BlasF
- 9E. LepaulF
- 90I. SoumaréF
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 17S. SzymańskiM
- 11Mousa TamariF
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 22B. DiaF
- 65H. Do MarcolinoF
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 12Eliezer MayendaF
- 1J. de LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 77A. HaritM
- 7A. GomesM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 13D. CorneliusD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 11N. MaupayF
- 18B. MeitéD
- 43T. MmadiF
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
- 92T. VermotG
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
Form going into Rennes vs Marseille
Rennes
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026
Marseille
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Marseille
- 17 May 2026Marseille 3–1 RennesLigue 1
- 3 February 2026Marseille 3–0 RennesCoupe de France
- 15 August 2025Rennes 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 17 May 2025Marseille 4–2 RennesLigue 1
- 11 January 2025Rennes 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1
Leading scorers: Rennes and Marseille
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- S. Szymański31
- B. Dia30
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri52
- H. Abdelli30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rennes beat Marseille 1–0. The model had made a win for Rennes its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Adrien Thomasson 52' for Rennes.