11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Rennes vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Roazhon Park, Rennes
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Rennes 1-0 Marseille.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Rennes, 27% draw, 33% Marseille — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rennes at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rennes95%Draw5%Marseille0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Himad Abdelli
Przemysław Frankowski
43'
43'
Igor Paixão
🔁Issa Soumaréout: Mousa Al-Tamari
45'
⚽Adrien Thomasson
52'
65'
🔁Angel Gomesout: Keyliane Abdallah
🔁Przemysław Frankowskiout: Bryan Reynolds
68'
🔁Esteban Lepaulout: Boulaye Dia
78'
🔁Ludovic Blasout: Sebastian Szymański
78'
78'
🔁Himad Abdelliout: Neal Maupay
85'
Amine Harit
🔁Mousa Al-Tamariout: Eliezer Mayenda
86'
88'
🔁Igor Paixãoout: Faris Moumbagna
88'
🔁Amine Gouiriout: Tadjidine Mmadi
88'
🔁Nayef Aguerdout: Derek Cornelius
90+4'
Timothy Weah

Match stats — Rennes vs Marseille

49%Possession51%
20Shots13
7On target5
3Corners5

Line-ups

Rennes 4-3-3
  • 30B. SambaG
  • 95P. FrankowskiD
  • 4C. CresswellD
  • 24A. RouaultD
  • 18M. NagidaD
  • 45M. CamaraM
  • 21V. RongierM
  • 28A. ThomassonM
  • 10L. BlasF
  • 9E. LepaulF
  • 90I. SoumaréF
Substitutes
  • 26Q. MerlinD
  • 14B. ReynoldsD
  • 17S. SzymańskiM
  • 11Mousa TamariF
  • 48A. Ait BoudlalD
  • 22B. DiaF
  • 65H. Do MarcolinoF
  • 16N. LemaîtreG
  • 12Eliezer MayendaF
Coach: F. Haise
Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. de LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 33EmersonD
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 23P. HøjbjergM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 14Igor PaixãoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 13D. CorneliusD
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 11N. MaupayF
  • 18B. MeitéD
  • 43T. MmadiF
  • 29F. MoumbagnaF
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
Coach: Bruno Genesio

Form going into Rennes vs Marseille

Rennes

  • W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
  • W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
  • D2-2Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026

Marseille

  • L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
  • W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rennes431085+310
13Marseille41036603

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rennes vs Marseille

  • 11 September 2026Rennes 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 17 May 2026Marseille 3–1 RennesLigue 1
  • 3 February 2026Marseille 3–0 RennesCoupe de France
  • 15 August 2025Rennes 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 17 May 2025Marseille 4–2 RennesLigue 1
  • 11 January 2025Rennes 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1

Leading scorers: Rennes and Marseille

Rennes

  • E. Lepaul3 goals
  • A. Thomasson1 goals2 assists
  • S. Szymański1 goals1 assists

Marseille

  • A. Gouiri4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.