Legia Warszawa
vs
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Legia Warszawa 2–1 Wisla Krakow
The model makes it 44% Legia Warszawa, 28% draw, 28% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.77, Wisla Krakow 1.14.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 44% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
Wisla Krakow
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Pogon Szczecin23 August 2026
What these results say
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Wisla Krakow | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
- 25 February 2022Legia Warszawa 2–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 29 August 2021Wisla Krakow 1–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 1 May 2021Legia Warszawa 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 12 December 2020Wisla Krakow 1–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 7 June 2020Wisla Krakow 1–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 27 October 2019Legia Warszawa 7–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa
- R. Augustyniak4 goals2 assists
- R. Adamski3 goals
- Ł. Zjawiński3 goals
Wisla Krakow
- Ángel Rodado4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Legia Warszawa carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.71 for Wisla Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.14 for Wisla Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Legia Warszawa rate 0.89 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Krakow rate 0.91 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Legia Warszawa a 28.6% chance of the title and Wisla Krakow 8.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Legia Warszawa against 1.14 for Wisla Krakow. Legia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.2 for Wisla Krakow.