Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Legia Warszawa 2-0 Wisla Krakow.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Legia Warszawa, 26% draw, 26% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Legia Warszawa at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiątkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5Robert DezielD
- 22P. WszołekM
- 4D. SzymańskiM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 17M. SzczepaniakF
- 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
- 9R. AdamskiF
- 20J. ŻewłakowF
- 6Henrique ArreiolM
- 24Z. ArsenićD
- 1I. BrkićG
- 14A. ČolakF
- 2S. FukudaD
- 13A. RecaD
- 23M. ŠevčíkM
- 53W. UrbańskiM
- 1M. ŁubikG
- 34R. GigerD
- 6A. UrygaD
- 29D. GrujčićD
- 52J. KrzyżanowskiD
- 10Frederico DuarteM
- 41K. DudaM
- 7J. ErtlthalerM
- 12J. IgbekemeM
- 17M. BožićM
- 9Ángel RodadoF
- 4R. MikulecD
- 93B. NeugebauerG
- 32Oliwier PlawinskiM
- 23Víctor MeseguerM
- 13M. MaisonneuveD
- 2J. LelieveldD
- 50M. KutwaD
- 8Marc CarbóM
- 97W. BiedrzyckiD
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
Wisla Krakow
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Pogon Szczecin23 August 2026
What these results say
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
- 25 February 2022Legia Warszawa 2–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 29 August 2021Wisla Krakow 1–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 1 May 2021Legia Warszawa 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 12 December 2020Wisla Krakow 1–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 7 June 2020Wisla Krakow 1–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Legia Warszawa beat Wisla Krakow 2–0. The model had made a win for Legia Warszawa its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lukasz Zjawinski 18' for Legia Warszawa, Rafal Adamski 70' for Legia Warszawa. On expected goals it finished 1.40–0.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Legia Warszawa a 65.7% chance to finish in the top four: 71.1% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 57.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.1%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.
For Wisla Krakow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 39.4% going in: 47.8% after a win, 41.1% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Legia Warszawa v Wisla Krakow has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Legia Warszawa's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Legia Warszawa win48%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Wisla Krakow win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.