Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1-0 CS Sfaxien.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, 28% draw, 40% CS Sfaxien — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CS Sfaxien at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
- D1-1away to Olympique Béja13 September 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif5 September 2026
- D0-0away to AS Marsa29 August 2026
- W2-0Jeunesse Sportive Omrane22 August 2026
CS Sfaxien
- W2-0CA Bizertin20 September 2026
- D1-1away to US Ben Guerdane16 September 2026
- W2-1ES Zarzis29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Stade Tunisien22 August 2026
What these results say
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer had two goals or fewer.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- CS Sfaxien went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- CS Sfaxien scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- CS Sfaxien conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien
- 10 October 2026Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1–0 CS SfaxienLigue 1