Estac Troyes vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Estac Troyes, 24% draw, 54% Marseille — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estac Troyes vs Marseille
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33P. BeachG
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4M. DiazD
- 5P. GozziD
- 8M. DiopM
- 29D. KarimM
- 17A. MilleM
- 11I. GomisM
- 7K. DiawaraM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 10M. IfnaouiM
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 37C. BatolaF
- 40H. KonatéG
- 23T. NkadaF
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 22H. PicardM
- 20R. RipartF
- 34Lassana SimakhaD
- 12J. de LangeG
- 74K. BezahafD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 77A. HaritM
- 7A. GomesM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 92T. VermotG
- 25U. GarciaD
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 18B. MeitéD
- 46E. MbondoD
- 11N. MaupayF
- 6T. NnadiM
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
Form going into Estac Troyes vs Marseille
Estac Troyes
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
- D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026
Marseille
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Paris Saint Germain20 September 2026
- L1-4away to Beşiktaş17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
What these results say
- Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Marseille conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Marseille
- 16 April 2023Marseille 3–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 11 January 2023Estac Troyes 0–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 27 February 2022Estac Troyes 1–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 28 November 2021Marseille 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 15 April 2018Estac Troyes 2–3 MarseilleLigue 1
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Marseille
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Marseille won 2–0 at Estac Troyes. The model had made a win for Marseille its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Amine Harit 50' for Marseille, Himad Abdelli (penalty) 90+8' for Marseille. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estac Troyes a 69.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 62.9% after a win, 70.3% after a draw, 72.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.6%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
For Marseille the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.5% going in: 20.8% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.8%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Estac Troyes v Marseille has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 25% / 26% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 22% / 24% / 54%: the biggest move is Marseille's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Estac Troyes win22%▼ −3
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Marseille win54%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.