Estac Troyes
vs
Marseille
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Estac Troyes 1–2 Marseille
The model makes it 25% Estac Troyes, 26% draw, 49% Marseille — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Estac Troyes 1.18, Marseille 2.11.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Estac Troyes vs Marseille
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Marseille at 49% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estac Troyes vs Marseille
Estac Troyes
- L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
- D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026
Marseille
- L1-2Paris Saint Germain20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
What these results say
- Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Marseille
- 16 April 2023Marseille 3–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 11 January 2023Estac Troyes 0–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 27 February 2022Estac Troyes 1–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 28 November 2021Marseille 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 15 April 2018Estac Troyes 2–3 MarseilleLigue 1
- 20 December 2017Marseille 3–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Marseille
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Marseille
- A. Gouiri4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estac Troyes carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.91 for Marseille. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Estac Troyes and 2.11 for Marseille. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estac Troyes rate 0.71 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Marseille rate 1.11 and 0.99.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Estac Troyes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Estac Troyes against 2.11 for Marseille. Estac Troyes's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.99 for Marseille.