Lanus
vs
Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 59% Lanus, 18% draw, 23% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 1.69, 5.56 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Lanus 2.72, Defensa Y Justicia 1.71.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lanus
- L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
- W3-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 August 2026
- L1-2away to Union Santa Fe6 August 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
- D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 August 2026
- W2-1Newell's Old Boys9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lanus carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.8 for Defensa Y Justicia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lanus W-L-L-W-L; Defensa Y Justicia D-W-L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.72 goals for Lanus and 1.71 for Defensa Y Justicia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lanus rate 1.10 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Defensa Y Justicia rate 1.13 and 1.31.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 77% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lanus a 3.7% chance of the title and Defensa Y Justicia 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Lanus against 1.71 for Defensa Y Justicia. Lanus's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.31 for Defensa Y Justicia.