Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Lanus 1-0 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lanus, 27% draw, 29% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26N. LosadaG
- 33T. GuidaraD
- 24C. IzquierdozD
- 13J. CanaleD
- 6S. MarcichD
- 5F. Pena BiaforeM
- 30A. CardozoM
- 11E. SalvioM
- 8F. N. WatsonM
- 77L. BesozziM
- 20A. WlkF
- 1F. PetroliG
- 4G. PerezD
- 39T. LaplaceM
- 35R. De JesusD
- 3N. MorgantiniD
- 40T. LopezD
- 23R. CarreraM
- 16M. SepulvedaM
- 17A. MedinaM
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 29D. FernandezD
- 21D. MartinezD
- 3F. RomanD
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 15S. SosaM
- 8C. PerezM
- 17A. HauschF
- 11T. PerrottaF
- 24J. GutierrezF
- 36L. AmadeG
- 16A. PortilloM
- 2S. LuceroD
- 6E. BurdinD
- 30D. DominguezD
- 22M. PorcelM
- 26J. LuccoF
- 45T. MartinezM
- 41R. GagliardiF
Form going into Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia
Lanus
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
- L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
- W3-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 August 2026
- L1-2away to Union Santa Fe6 August 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
- W1-0Platense31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Belgrano Cordoba23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 August 2026
- W2-1Newell's Old Boys9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
What these results say
- Lanus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lanus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lanus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lanus | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lanus and Defensa Y Justicia
Lanus
GoalsAssists
- D. Aquino62
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.