Willem II
vs
Excelsior
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 28% Willem II, 25% draw, 47% Excelsior — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Willem II 1.32, Excelsior 1.74.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Willem II
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
Excelsior
- L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
- W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Willem II vs Excelsior
- 30 December 2022Willem II 3–1 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2021Willem II 2–0 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2019Excelsior 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 15 September 2018Willem II 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 6 April 2018Excelsior 2–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 13 August 2017Willem II 1–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers
Willem II
No league goals recorded yet.
Excelsior
- N. Naujoks2 goals
- I. Yegoian1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Willem II carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.88 for Excelsior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Willem II L-L; Excelsior W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Willem II and 1.74 for Excelsior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Willem II rate 0.81 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Excelsior rate 0.89 and 0.86.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Excelsior the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Willem II against 1.74 for Excelsior. Willem II's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.86 for Excelsior.