NEC Nijmegen
vs
Levski Sofia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Levski Sofia
The model makes it 38% NEC Nijmegen, 29% draw, 33% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.46, Levski Sofia 1.30.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- NEC Nijmegen are bottom on 0 points from 1 game; Levski Sofia are 27th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- NEC Nijmegen are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Botev Vratsa.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEC Nijmegen at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
NEC Nijmegen
- L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026
Levski Sofia
- L0-1Red Bull Salzburg17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.82 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.30 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 0.91 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.91 and 0.97.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Levski Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.30 for Levski Sofia. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.97 for Levski Sofia.
Season stats
NEC Nijmegen at home · Levski Sofia away
League matches only, this season — NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, Levski Sofia in the First League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: NEC Nijmegen 7 in the Eredivisie, Levski Sofia 9 in the First League.
Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NEC Nijmegen
- vs Fortuna Sittard18 Oct · Eredivisiewin 46%
- at Dinamo Zagreb22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- vs Groningen25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at Heerenveen31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
Levski Sofia
- at Plzen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
- at Arda Kardzhali24 Oct · First Leaguewin 47%
- vs CSKA Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.