Racing Santander
vs
Valencia
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Racing Santander 2–1 Valencia
The model makes it 39% Racing Santander, 27% draw, 34% Valencia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.78, Valencia 1.55.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Racing Santander vs Valencia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Santander at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Racing Santander vs Valencia
Racing Santander
- L0-5away to Celta Vigo19 September 2026
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
Valencia
- L2-3Real Sociedad20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
- L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo La Coruna30 August 2026
What these results say
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
- Racing Santander scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Valencia
- 29 January 2012Racing Santander 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
- 27 August 2011Valencia 4–3 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 31 January 2011Racing Santander 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 11 September 2010Valencia 1–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Valencia
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri6 goals
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Racing Santander carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.72 for Valencia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Racing Santander and 1.55 for Valencia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Racing Santander rate 1.06 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valencia rate 0.80 and 1.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Santander the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Racing Santander against 1.55 for Valencia. Racing Santander's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.04 for Valencia.