Racing Santander vs Valencia La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Racing Santander 2-2 Valencia.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Racing Santander, 25% draw, 34% Valencia — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Racing Santander at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Santander vs Valencia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Álvaro MantillaD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 18M. PratiM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 23Iván MartínM
- 8André AlmeidaM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 19Iker LuqueF
- 11Andrés MartínF
- 12Asier VillalibreF
- 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 9Juan Carlos AranaF
- 15Pablo GarcíaF
- 31Laro GómezG
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 4M. DiakhabyD
- 18PepeluD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 19Dani RabaM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 37Aimar BlázquezF
- 36Iker CórdobaD
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 15A. DiengM
- 10H. ElliottM
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 27David OtorbiF
- 39R. SatoM
Form going into Racing Santander vs Valencia
Racing Santander
All competitions we cover
- L0-5away to Celta Vigo19 September 2026
- L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
Valencia
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Real Sociedad20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
- L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo La Coruna30 August 2026
What these results say
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
- Racing Santander scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Valencia
- 29 January 2012Racing Santander 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
- 27 August 2011Valencia 4–3 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 31 January 2011Racing Santander 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 11 September 2010Valencia 1–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Valencia
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri90
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Racing Santander and Valencia drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Racing Santander at 41% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Raba Antolín 2' for Valencia, Yassir Zabiri 32' for Racing Santander, Iván Martín 47' for Racing Santander, David Otorbi Ejededawe 65' for Valencia. On expected goals it finished 1.32–1.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Racing Santander a 44.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.8% after a win, 45.5% after a draw, 51.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 45.5%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Valencia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.5% going in: 25.0% after a win, 31.5% after a draw, 35.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 31.5%.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Racing Santander v Valencia has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Racing Santander's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Racing Santander win41%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Valencia win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.