FC Andorra
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: FC Andorra 1–0 Sporting Gijon
The model makes it 37% FC Andorra, 30% draw, 33% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Andorra 1.37, Sporting Gijon 1.24.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Andorra vs Sporting Gijon
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Andorra wins, grey are draws, red are Sporting Gijon wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Andorra at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Andorra vs Sporting Gijon
FC Andorra
- L1-3Real Sociedad II12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Valladolid5 September 2026
- L0-1Eibar30 August 2026
- L2-4away to Celta de Vigo II24 August 2026
- W5-1AD Ceuta FC15 August 2026
Sporting Gijon
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Andorra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Sporting Gijon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Andorra vs Sporting Gijon
- 8 March 2026FC Andorra 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 28 November 2025Sporting Gijon 1–1 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 11 May 2024Sporting Gijon 5–2 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 23 September 2023FC Andorra 0–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 19 February 2023FC Andorra 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 20 August 2022Sporting Gijon 4–1 FC AndorraSegunda División
Leading scorers: FC Andorra and Sporting Gijon
FC Andorra
- Hugo López2 goals
- Nacho Quintana2 goals
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Andorra carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.51 for Sporting Gijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for FC Andorra and 1.24 for Sporting Gijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Andorra rate 0.65 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Gijon rate 0.65 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sporting Gijon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Andorra the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for FC Andorra against 1.24 for Sporting Gijon. FC Andorra's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.3 for Sporting Gijon.