19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Castellón vs Tenerife Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Castalia
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Castellón 5-0 Tenerife.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Castellón, 29% draw, 31% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Castellón at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Castellón99%Draw1%Tenerife0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Diego Barriassist: Israel Suero Fernández
9'
⚽Matías Orozcoassist: Adam Jakobsen
24'
⚽Ousmane Camaraassist: Íñigo Córdoba
29'
🔁Matías Orozcoout: Alvaro Martin
45'
45'
🔁Juanjo Sánchezout: Mauro Pitton
45'
🔁Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosaout: A. Krdžalić
45'
🔁Ivan Chapelaout: Noel López
60'
Mauro Pitton
🔁Israel Suero Fernándezout: Francisco Castillo
61'
🔁Adam Jakobsenout: Pablo Santiago
61'
⚽Pablo Santiagoassist: Juanjo Nieto
62'
65'
Víctor Moreno Alcalá
🔁Íñigo Córdobaout: Raúl Sánchez
69'
73'
🔁Christian Pierre Louis Gomisout: Gerard Valentín
73'
🔁Marc Mateuout: Martin Pečar
⚽Ousmane Camaraassist: Alberto Jiménez
77'
🔁Ousmane Camaraout: Álvaro García Arana
78'

Match stats — Castellón vs Tenerife

64%Possession36%
9Shots12
5On target4
0Corners5

Line-ups

Castellón 4-4-2
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5Alberto JiménezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 2Juanjo NietoD
  • 16A. JakobsenM
  • 6M. OrozcoM
  • 8BarriM
  • 14Iñigo CórdobaM
  • 9Ousmane CamaraF
  • 10Israel SueroF
Substitutes
  • 19Hamza BellariF
  • 17F. CastilloM
  • 25J. VlakM
  • 11F. CeccheriniD
  • 26Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira RêgoF
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 23Varo GarcíaF
  • 21Álvaro MartínM
  • 1A. SaipiG
Coach: Pablo Hernández
Tenerife 4-4-2
  • 1Dani MartínG
  • 5Jorge MorenoD
  • 12A. LandázuriD
  • 4José LeónD
  • 2David RodríguezD
  • 24Iván ChapelaM
  • 6JuanjoM
  • 15FabricioM
  • 21Marc MateuM
  • 8Víctor MorenoF
  • 17C. GomisF
Substitutes
  • 29Daniel FernándezM
  • 18Enric GallegoF
  • 3R. JureškinD
  • 23A. KrdžalićM
  • 40Gabriel LozanoG
  • 11Noel LópezF
  • 7M. PečarM
  • 20M. PittónM
  • 14Gerard ValentínF
Coach: Álvaro

Form going into Castellón vs Tenerife

Castellón

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
  • W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
  • D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026

Tenerife

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Leganes13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Real Sociedad II5 September 2026
  • L0-1Sporting Gijon28 August 2026
  • W1-0Almeria23 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Eibar16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Castellón went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Castellón won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tenerife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Tenerife had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Castellón11821224+1826
12Tenerife113531315-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Castellón vs Tenerife

  • 11 January 2025Tenerife 2–0 CastellónSegunda División
  • 29 September 2024Castellón 2–1 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 25 April 2021Tenerife 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
  • 6 January 2021Castellón 0–2 TenerifeCopa del Rey
  • 3 January 2021Castellón 0–1 TenerifeSegunda División

Leading scorers: Castellón and Tenerife

Castellón

GoalsAssists

  • Israel Suero52
  • Ousmane Camara41

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

  • Enric Gallego70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Castellón beat Tenerife 5–0. The model had made a win for Castellón its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Diego Barri 9' for Castellón, Matías Orozco 24' for Castellón, Ousmane Camara 29' for Castellón, Pablo Santiago 62' for Castellón, Ousmane Camara 77' for Castellón.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.